000 
FXUS63 KPAH 010751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 AM CST MON APR 01 2002

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUE 
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED WITH NEXT CANADIAN FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND 
CHANCES OF THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM LOOKS HIGH AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE 
REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MOST 
LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUN WILL PUSH 
TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READING MOST AREAS (MID TO UPPER 
60S). 

WARMUP/DRY WEATHER TO BE SHORT LIVED AS NEXT CANADIAN FRONT ENTERS 
THE PICTURE BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE 
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG GULF COAST BREAKS DOWN JUST IN TIME TO ALLOW 
DECENT LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW. NOT MUCH ENERGY ALOFT...BUT SHOULD BE 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. ETA/AVN SW/K INDICES AROUND 0 AND 30 
RESPECTIVELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SURFACE FRONT 00Z WED...SO 
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SINCE THIS IS 
THE MODEL SECOND RUN IN ROW TO SUPPORT THIS...WILL INTRODUCE A 
CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO ZONES WITH THIS PACKAGE. 

MOST OF THE INTEGRATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PAINTED BEHIND 
THE FRONT...SO WILL HAVE TO LINGER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT 
(AND INTO WED MORNING SOUTHEAST COUNTIES). DUE TO LACK OF H50 
SUPPORT...THINK THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE A LIGHT RAIN EVENT AFTER THE 
THREAT OF THUNDER PASSES TUE EVENING...WITH GENERAL QPF 1/4 INCH OR 
LESS.

NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN/DRY PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN 
HIGH SETTLES IN JUST NORTH OF AREA. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FREEZE 
LATER PART OF THE WEEK (THU MORNING)...BUT WITH HIGH REMAINING NORTH 
OF REGION...SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE FROST 
POTENTIAL.   

.PAH...NONE.

MEFFERT