000 
FXUS64 KBMX 292058
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
258 PM CST FRI MAR 29 2002

MOST OF THE DAY HAS CONSUMED BY SECURING STAFFING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.  NORTHERN THIRD OF STATE WAS UNDER
A MODERATE RISK...BUT LATEST SPC GUIDANCE REMOVED ALABAMA COUNTIES
FROM MODERATE RISK...SO UNSURE OF THE THREAT OF SVR STORMS TONIGHT.
FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE THREAT OF SVR STORMS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY BY
MIDNIGHT...AND MAIN THREAT BEYOND THAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NW ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE BIRMINGHAM...TUSCALOOSA...AND ANNISTON AREAS.  NONE OF
ALABAMA UNDER A RISK OF SVR STORMS ON SATURDAY DUE TO STALLED FRONT
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING MECHANISM.

MAIN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ON SUNDAY...AND THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.  SYSTEM SHOULD
FINALLY BE EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING.  NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN
MID WEEK...WITH A COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

HSV 55  63  52  62/  80 70 80 70
BHM 61  67  58  68/  60 80 70 70
MGM 62  78  62  76/  40 60 40 60

.BHM...NONE.