000 FXUS64 KTSA 281938 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 140 PM CST THU MAR 28 2002 IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEAK CDFNT ACROSS WRN OK WILL CONT TO WASH OUT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WL ALLOW SRLY FLOW TO CONT OVERNIGHT. LLVL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN ACROSS THE AREA WITH L50 TDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS S TX ATTM...AND FEEL THE THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN WL BE TO THE S AND E OF THE CWFA. A STRONGER CDFNT WL PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA AS THE SFC LOW MOVES E ACROSS OK. ETA POOLS MOISTURE ALONG WK WARM FRONT ACROSS NW AR/FAR NE OK TOMORROW AFTN...ALLOWING SBCAPES TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WDLY SCT TSRA ALONG AND BEHIND THE CDFNT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHCS IN THE S AND E. DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TOMORROW...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEFINITELLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS CDFNT STALLS OUT S ACROSS TX SAT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT PCPN EVEN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG OVERRUNNING TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PUSHING E. MDLS HV SHOWN SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE ETA/AVN ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPR LOW. WITH THE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS N TX THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HVY RAFL IS A CONCERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. THIS AREA HAS SEEN 8+ INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WKS...AND SOIL CONDS REMAIN NEAR SATURATED. FFG VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW AS WELL. WL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THE S. STILL MAINLY A LATE 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT...SO WL NOT ISSUE AN FFA ATTM. WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURE ACROSS TX. ALSO CONCERNED THAT THE JET STRUCTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THEY COULD BE. NONETHELESS...GIVEN RECENT HVY RAFL...AND ANTICEDENT SOIL CONDS...WL ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS AFTN OUTLOOKING HVY RAFL. ACROSS NRN ZNS ON SAT...SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS...WITH REASONABLY COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE S. WL BE A SHARP CONTRAST IN TEMP AND RAFL DURING THE DAY SAT...AND LATER SHIFTS WL LIKELY HAVE TO FINE TUNE THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN. HV KEPT CHC POPS EVEN ACROSS THE N FOR CONSISTENCY AND RESIDUAL MDL DIFFERENCES...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REDUCED OR DROPPED ALL TOGETHER. IN THE MED RANGE...MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE DEALING WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE E PAC AND CONUS. MED RANGE MDLS DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS WITH VARYING SOLNS. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE OF THE FCST. MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN/SPREADS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLES. BOTH THE OPMRF AND YDAS ECMWF BRING A COLD SFC RIDGE OUT OF NRN CA DOWN THE PLAINS TUE/WED. THE MRF HOLDS ON TO A MUCH STRONGER NRN STREAM SYS...WITH THE ECMWF WEAKER AND FURTHER N. EITHER WAY...ANY COLD AIR WL BE SHORT LIVED...AND MAY ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE CWA. HV ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT...THANKS TO NDFD SITES FOR COORD THIS AFTN. MANNING FCSTID = 24 ...PRELIMINARY NUMBERS TO FOLLOW... .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.