000 FXUS64 KOHX 251948 AFDBNA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 115 PM CST MON MAR 25 2002 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITTING ALONG A HOT SPRINGS-JONESBORO-LEXINGTON LINE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 MPH. RADAR ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. VORTMAX CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST LOWER PLAINS EXPECTED TO KICK NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS (SLIGHT CHANCE) OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MAINLY TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MOST SEVERE ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE AREA JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE LIFTED INDICES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH TIME...NOTHING TO GET REALLY EXCITED ABOUT. ALSO...B+ ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH +800 RANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY DIE OFF TO 200-400 RANGE BY MIDNIGHT. BULK OF THE HELICITY PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT. THUS CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED BY SELS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT. MAIN RISK WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ON TEMPS...A FEW TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVN FASTEST...NGM SLOWEST. ALSO...THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME RH DIFFERENCES WITH THE AVN AND ETA SHOWING MUCH MORE DRY SLOT DRYING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN LOW CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY TO DIFFERENCES IN MAX/MIN FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE 2 POINITS OF VIEW SEEMS TO CONVERGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS FOR THOSE PERIODS FAIRLY CLOSE. LOCAL MICRO ETA SHOWS A FAIRLY NARROW DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING WITH 70-75 PERCENT RH AT 850MB BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WRAP AROUND COLD AIR CU TOMORROW MORNING. WILL TRY TO SEEK A COMPROMISE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BNA EU 051/056 032/057 034 18950 CSV EU 054/060 030/052 030 18680 .BNA...NONE. $$ JLM