FXUS61 KCAR 210315
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EST WED MAR 20 2002

.UPDATED...
WILL BE UPDATING TO GO W/WINTER STM WRNG FOR CNTL & DOWNEAST ME W/WINTER
WX ADV FOR NRN ZNS. ALREADY GETTING RPRTS OF 2-3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES &
LATEST RDR IMAGERY/VWP INDICATING UPSLOPE W/STG WAA TO CONT THRU EARLY
MRNG HRS. MESO-ETA APPEARED TO BE CLOSE TO REALITY ON CRNT SITUATION.
SPC SHOWING PSBL 5-7 RNG CNTL/DOWNEAST AREAS. WILL GO W/GLW ON THE CSTL
WTRS AS WINDS ALREADY SHOWING NR THE CRIT. MDLS UNDERDONE SO FAR.

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TO JUST
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS LOW
WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY
WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
THANKS FOR HEADS UP COORD GYX.

MESO-ETA IN LINE W/CRNT SITUATION & LATEST RDR IMAGERY SHOWING SWATH OF
EHCHANCED SNOWFALL FM NERN ME DOWN INTO DOWNEAST TERRITORY. SFC LOW
FURTHER N THAN ADVERTISED & WILL MOVE THRU GULF OF ME OVNGT & TO SRN TIER
OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THU MRNG. HIEST SNFL AMTS WILL BE GEARED TO CNTL &
DOWNEAST AREAS.

MODELS ADVERTISING A STRONGER MORE VIGOUROUS SFC WAVE ASSOCD WITH ARCTIC
BNDRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.  MODELS SPLIT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH ETA...WRF...
MM5 TAKING PCP ACROS NRN ME AND AVN...UKMET ACROSS CST SXNS.  GBL GEM
PRESENTS ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISE WITH WAVE TRACKING ALG IMMEDIATE CST AND AXIS
OF PCP SHIELD ACROSS CNTL HIGHLANDS. THIS TRACK IS ALSO SOMEWHAT FAVORED BY
CLIMO.

FRI THRU SUNDAY TIME RANGE...GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG POLAR VORTEX
OVER HUDSONS BAY AND CNTL QUEBEC AND GOOD LATE SEASON SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND.  MOS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS PERIOD LOOK TOO
COLD WHILE LAST PACKAGE LOOKED TOO WARM ON DAYTIME HIGHS SO TWEAKED
BOTH ACCORDINGLY.

NEXT WEEK...NRN STREAM WEAKENS AS POLAR VORTEX RETREATS...SRN STREAM
BCMS MORE ACTIVE AS LONG WAVE TROF AMPLIFIES OVR CNTL US.
MRF...ECMWF...GEM ALL SHOW ENERGY EJECTING TOWARDS GREAT LAKES WITH
ON WED-THU TIME PERIOD WITH LIKELY SCENARIO BEING RAIN FOR MAINE.

.CAR...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES 10-11,15>17,29>32 FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
       THURSDAY MORNING.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1>6 FOR
       OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
       GLW FOR COASTAL WATERS.

JAH/FT