000 
FXUS65 KMSO 202058
AFDMSO

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
200 PM MST WED MAR 20 2002

.SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT WITH MINOR CHANGES TO
WORDING...MAINLY EXTENDING THEM INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL INTO TONIGHT.
SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BLOWING SNOW AND WIND
CHILLS BEING THE FOCUS FOR HIGHLIGHTS THERE. MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE DRYING TONIGHT BECAUSE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE FROM AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST.

THU/FRI...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THU...MOISTURE
WILL BE CUTOFF FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP WILL BE REDUCED TO FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED THU
NIGHT/FRI WITH NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE EXPECTED TO
BE TOO WARM THANKS TO RECENT SNOW COVER AND WILL UNDERCUT TEMPS BY
QUITE A BIT.

SAT...WILL ACCEPT MODELS SOLUTION OF SWEEPING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
INTO THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. WILL BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS. MSJ

.LONG TERM...GENERAL COOL AIR SNOW SHOWERS UNDER BROAD TROUGH AS
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRYING OUT
MIDWEEK WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR ACTUAL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY. SIGLER

.MSO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MTZ001>003 TONIGHT.
       WINTER STORM WARNING MTZ004>006 TONIGHT.
       BLIZZARD WARNING MTZ043 TONIGHT.
       HEAVY SNOW WARNING IDZ005-006 TONIGHT.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MTZ007 TONIGHT.

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB EEC 006/024 015/034 025/041 35200035
     EEBU 027/038 027/039 025/043 028/051 3133320000
FCA EEC 902/018 008/032 021/039 35300034
     EEBU 027/038 026/039 024/042 028/050 3133320000
POL EEC 011/033 017/035 023/041 35700023
     EEBU 030/037 029/038 028/042 032/051 3133320000
MSO EBC 008/029 014/039 024/043 35+20013
     EEBU 029/038 028/039 028/044 030/051 3134320000
HMM EBC 012/033 017/042 025/045 35+20013
     EEBU 030/040 029/041 028/047 031/055 3134320000
BTM EBE 000/027 002/034 011/039 35620002
     EEBU 017/034 015/035 012/039 016/047 3134320000
ORO EBC 033/050 035/054 038/055 35600035
     EBUU 035/045 035/046 033/053 037/059 3132200000
GRV EBC 030/046 032/049 034/050 35300012
     EBUU 030/040 030/041 030/046 032/053 3132200000
SMN EBE 025/040 016/042 022/045 35300012
     EEBU 029/041 027/041 025/045 028/052 3134320000