000 FXUS61 KPHI 190937 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 430 AM EST TUE MAR 19 2002 DRYER AIR WORKING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SPOTS...BUT SURFACE OBS STILL INDICATING DRIFTING PATCHY DENSE FOG. WITH THE CLOUDS... MORNING TEMPS WILL START OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S...40S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POCONOS. LARGE WEST COAST TROF CONTINUES TO GUIDE A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THIS DIRECTION. WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THIN. MID/HIER CLOUDS LOOK PLENTIFUL IN SUBTROPICAL FETCH AND ARE ATTEMPTING TO BREAK THRU H5 RIDGE. THE AVN EVEN HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE/-RA ACROSS DELMARVA LATER TODAY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO EFFECT THE CWA THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT LOOKS LIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT FURTHER NORTH. THIS BASED OFF THE PREFERRED AVN THIS MORNING. THE 00Z ETA IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE PRECIPITATION OVER US AND DOESN/T MATCH UP WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE POCONOS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW(AS LATE AS EARLY AFTERNOON)...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...THICKNESSES AND HEIGHT OF FREEZING LEVEL SUGGEST RAIN MIXING WITH WET SNOW. EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE 1 TO 3 ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...TRACE AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. NO ADVISORIES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. MODELS IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING LIQUID QPF WITH (.3-.5) INCHES ACROSS POCONOS...(.5-.75) ACROSS PHILLY AREA...AND (.75-1.00) ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WILL HOLD A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TOMORROW EVENING WITH SOME SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED. NO CHANGES ON THE MARINE SIDE THIS MORNING. FCSTID = 29 MPO 40 31 36 33 / 0 60 100 30 ABE 46 34 42 36 / 0 60 100 30 RDG 47 35 43 37 / 0 60 100 30 PHL 51 36 45 40 / 10 80 100 30 12N 41 32 37 34 / 0 60 100 30 SMQ 46 33 42 35 / 0 60 100 30 TTN 49 35 44 38 / 0 70 100 30 MIV 50 39 47 42 / 20 90 100 30 ACY 48 40 47 41 / 20 80 100 40 ILG 50 36 44 39 / 10 80 100 30 DOV 50 39 48 43 / 20 90 100 30 GED 50 39 47 42 / 20 90 100 30 ESN 51 38 48 41 / 20 90 100 30 .PHI... DE...NONE. MD...NONE. NJ...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SCA OCEAN AND LOWER BAY FOR SEAS KRUZDLO