000 
FXUS64 KLIX 190843
AFDNEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 
240 AM CST TUE MAR 19 2002

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO GIVE US A STRATUS DECK 
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY WARMED 
UP FROM A FEW DAYS AGO REACHING THE UPPER 60S. SO SEA FOG MAY 
NOT BE AS BIG A THREAT NOW AS IT WAS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO 
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE 
1 DEGREE CAP OVER US TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOTTOM LINE...NO CHANGE OF 
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE A GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG 
THE ETA...NGM AND AVIATION MODELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN THE LONGER TERM...ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IS THAT THE TIMING OF THE 
COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS 
INDICATED. THIS IS REASONABLE DUE TO THE DIGGING NATURE OF THE 
SOUTHWEST U.S. LOW. I DO NOT PLAN TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE AVN AND 
ETA MODELS. I WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY 
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE 
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL 
DESTABILITZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS MAY 
LINGER DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL POSTIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AFTER THE 
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE ETA AND AVN MODELS SEEM TO 
PART COMPANY ON THIS ISSUE. 

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTH 
MISSISSIPIT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES 
IN.

MCB 84/67/78/50 0054  BTR 85/68/82/52 0054
MSY 84/70/83/58 0043  GPT 78/68/78/53 0043

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.