000 
FXUS61 KBGM 171855
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EST SUN MAR 17 2002

SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO BY MONDAY MRNG THEN SLIDE 
EWD ACRS THE RGN MON NGT...WEAKENING TO A TROF AS IT DOES SO. ASSCD 
S/WV TO TRACK ACRS NRN NY.

A MIXED PCPN SCENARIO ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IT WILL START AS 
SNOW...THEN CHGOVR TO SLEET ACRS SRN NY AND NE PA LATER TNGT. 
BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ACCUMS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE....SLIGHTLY 
LESS ACRS N ZONES. AS FOR -FZRA POTNL...BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST 
MINIMAL POTNL TNGT WITH PSBL XCPTN OF FAR WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) 
AS 850 THERMAL RDG POKES NWD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z. HOWEVER GUIDANCE 
SFC TEMPS ARE VERY MARGINAL (06-12Z GUIDANCE TEMPS AT ELM ARE IN THE 
L/M30S). ANOTHER AREA THAT COULD PSBLY SEE SOME PATCHY -FZRA COULD 
BE PORTIONS OF NE PA FOR A BRIEF PD ERLY TMRW MRNG...BUT AGAIN 
PROFILES SEEM TO IMPLY A SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN CHGOVR (WARM LAYER 
TEMPS 1-2C AND GNRLY LESS THAN 50 MB DEEP) AND GUIDANCE SFC TEMPS 
ARE VERY MARGINAL (L/M30S AT AVP). LASTLY...PORTIONS OF THE WRN 
CATSKILLS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY -FZRA TMRW AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN 
PLACE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE DO NOT SEE POTNL FOR WDSPRD 4+ INCH 
SNOW ACCUMS (WE MAY GET A 4 INCH OUTLIER) AND THINK THE -FZRA POTNL 
IS LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND JUST HANDLE 
THE SITN IN THE ZONES. 

FOR TMRW LIKELY POPS. PROFILES AND GUIDANCE MAXES SUGGESTS RAIN/SNOW 
SHOWERS UP NORTH AND -SHRA ELSEHWHERE...WITH SOME MIXED PCPN EARLY. 
XCPTNS WILL BE THE UCA AREA WHERE PROFILES ARE COLD ENUF TO SUPPORT 
SNOW WELL INTO THE AFTN WITH THE POTNL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF 
ACCUM...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL BE HARDER TO 
DISLODGE. 

LOW LVL MSTR WILL HANG TUFF TMRW NGT...WILL KEEP IN A CHC FOR SOME 
-DZ OR FLURRIES IN THE ENVG OTRW CLDY SKIES. WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY 
CLOUDY FCST FOR TUES AS LINGERING LOW CLDS LIKELY TO BE ARND IN THE 
MRNG...WITH THICKENING UPR DECK MOVG IN DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF 
THE NEXT OH VLY LOW.

XTNDD...POTNL FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT ON WED (SPCLY ACRS NE PA) THEN A 
RETURN TO WINTER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SIG LAKE SNOWS 
APPEAR LIKELY BEGINNING THU NGT/FRIDAY GIVEN FCST THICKNESSES/TEMPS 
AND SUPPORT FROM EMBEDDED S/WVS ALOFT. 

COORD WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. THANX AND HAPPY ST. PATS DAY. 

.BGM...NONE.

OBRADY