000 FXUS65 KVEF 161206 AFDLAS MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 400 AM PST SAT MAR 16 2002 SYNOPSIS...A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST ACROSS ARIZONA. DISCUSSION...BROAD...COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN FLOW DIFFICULT TO GRASP ONTO AS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN. PRESENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOVING NORTHEAST. SYSTEM DID DROP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PORTION OF LAS VEGAS VALLEY LATE LAST EVENING. AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING SO HAVE HIT THE AREA WITH HIGH POPS AND DID MENTION SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF THERE WOULD BE A BREAK THE 06Z AVN SHOWS TONIGHT AS HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY. BUT AGAIN...TIMING AND EXACT POSITION OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OFF MODELS QUESTIONABLE. SO HAVE LEFT SOME LOW POPS MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE DUE ACROSS AREA SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING NORTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIT THESE PERIODS THE HARDEST AND DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE OTHER SIGNIFICANT PARAMETER TO MONITOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GREAT BASIN SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO TIGHT GRADIENTS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING. WILL BECOME WINDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTY AZ AS THE DAY WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS LAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS COULD BE EVEN STRONGER SUNDAY WHEN MORE ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. GOING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BUILDING A RIDGE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. HAD TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AS NOW IT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. PIERCE .LAS...WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY CALIFORNIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.