000 
FXUS66 KPQR 152229
AFDPQR

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST FRI MAR 15 2002


.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY LOW SNOW LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z ETA/AVN MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW H85 TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C AND 1000-500 THKNESS OF 522
DAM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER DIVQ
FIELDS SHOW MAX FORCING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 25-30 KT OROGRAPHIC WIND NOTE DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF TENTHS EVERY SIX HOURS. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT SNOW
ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AND HOIST SNOW ADVISORY FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. SHOWERS DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AS FORCING MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FAIR AGREEMENT IN MODELS THROUGH TUES WITH ANOTHER COOL
LOW FORMING OFF THE WA/OR COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LIKELY POPS. 
CONFIDENCE WANES DURING THE MID-LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. PER
CONSENSUS WITH NEARBY OFFICES WILL CARRY CHANCE WORDING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. TW

AST 997557  PDX 998557  SLE 998557  EUG 999657 

.PQR...SMALL CRAFT CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TONIGHT.
       SNOW ADVISORY CASCADES...FOOTHILLS...COAST RANGE...WILLAMETTE  
       VALLEY...LOWER COLUMBIA AND COLUMBIA GORGE THROUGH SAT.