000 
WWUS84 KTSA 151704
SPSTUL
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1100 AM CST FRI MAR 15 2002

...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR      
   SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED THIS MORNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS... 
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...ACROSS NORTHWEST 
ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...
PRIMARILY OVER LE FLORE...SEBASTIAN...MADISON...AND FRANKLIN 
COUNTIES. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 
EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS NORTHEAST. 

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER 
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THIS 
AFTERNOON.

$$
  
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING  
ALONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS 
AFTERNOON...AS REGION REMAINS IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER 
JET. FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ELEVATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 
500-750 J/KG OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 
GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE 
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE 
FRONT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. 
$$

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA