000 
FXUS63 KLMK 141956
AFDSDF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EST THU MAR 14 2002

TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO WARM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONCE ALL LOW 
CLOUDS DISSIPATED READINGS QUICKLY ROSE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

S/W ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER 
PORTION OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z FRIDAY AND MODELS HAVE COME 
TOGETHER ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW 
AND MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIS 
WILL DROP TO -2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE 
STRONG WINDS. SPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE 
FOR THIS EVENT.

MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER A WAVE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE 
ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE. ETA/AVN SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE 
NGM AND CANADIAN MODELS DO NOT. THIS WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT AND AT THIS TIME WILL 
WILL GO WITH THE ETA/AVN SOLUTION.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH DRY WX EXPECTED ON 
SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE VALUES LOOK GOOD BUT WE WILL GO BELOW FWC VALUES FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON. 


.SDF...NONE.

JA