000 
FXUS64 KBMX 140905
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
305 AM CST THU MAR 14 2002

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VISIBILITIES AOB
1/4 MILE AND WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE AREA
BEFORE ZONE RELEASE TIME.  ONCE FOG BURNS OFF..STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER NW
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY
AS UPPER SUPPORT PULLS OUT. HOWEVER...AVN MUCH WETTER THAN ETA ON
SATURDAY.  ETA SHOWS HIGHER UVVS LIFTING NORTH OF ALABAMA WHILE AVN
INDICATES STRONG IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA ON SATURDAY.  AVN HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MRF MODEL KEEPS CENTRAL GULF STATES
UNDER A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


HSV 74  54  76  52  60/ 0 0 30 70
BHM 76  55  78  58  66/ 0 0 20 50
MGM 77  52  80  60  74/ 0 0 10 30

.BHM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL ZONES THIS MORNING.

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