000 
FXUS64 KTSA 110250
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CST SUN MAR 10 2002

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST 
TEXAS WHILE ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN 
NEVADA.  THIS WAVE HAS BEEN HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS WITH BOTH 
ETA AND AVN 18Z RUNS TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER AND SLOWER FROM 
THEIR 12Z RUNS.  ADDITIONALLY THE 18Z ETA/AVN 6HR FORECAST OF 250MB 
WINDS UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE JET MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST THE WHEN COMPARED TO 00Z UPPER AIR DATA.  AS 00Z DATA 
TRICKLES IN IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD THE SLOWER 
AND STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THIS WAVE...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK TAKING 
THE BULK OF UPPER DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.  

CIRRUS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA 
OVERNIGHT WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  WILL 
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS 
WITH WIND SPEEDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FAVORING WARMER SIDE OF 
GUIDANCE.  AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO SEE INCREASING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONSIDERING SLOWER SPEED OF APPROACHING WAVE HOWEVER 
MAJORITY OF LIFT MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.  WILL PASS ALONG 
CONCERNS WITH THE IDEA THAT SHOWERY PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE ADDED 
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  UPDATE ZONES 
ISSUED ASAP.

FCSTID = 07


.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.