000 
FXUS66 KEKA 090439
AFDEKA

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
838 PM PST FRI MAR 8 2002 

BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING REMAINS OVER NORCAL THIS EVENING...WITH 
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATING AN INCREASING AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE STREAMING IN ON THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW 
PERSISTS AT THE NEAR-SHORE BUOYS...INDICATIVE OF THE SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO HOLD GROUND. HOWEVER...MSAS DATA SETS 
AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THE DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND HAS ALREADY 
REACHED THE COASTAL OUTER WATERS...AND SHOULD QUICKLY REACH THE 
COASTAL ZONES...CONFIRMED BY GRADIENT CHART. SHORT TERM UPDATE 
CONCERN IS SKY COVER AND TEMPS...AND WILL CHANGE MOSTLY CLEAR 
WORDING TO PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY PER OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE 
INFO. WILL ALSO TWEAK A FEW TEMP RANGES UPWARD BASED ON THE ENHANCED 
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND SOUTH WIND. DEW 
POINTS ARE ALSO UP ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO...SO NOT 
EXPECTING IT TO BE QUITE AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT BUT A FEW NEAR 
RECORD LOWS STILL POSSIBLE. 

MESSY WEATHER WEEKEND ON TAP AS A FEW SYSTEMS APPEAR DESTINED TO 
AFFECT NORCAL...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND WIND. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT VORT AND COINCIDENT JET MAX NEAR 
38N/138W WITH CONVECTIVE LOOKING CLUSTER DEVELOPING JUST TO ITS NE. 
A SECONDARY SWIRL IS SEEN NICELY NEAR 47N/145W WITH SCATTERED LOWER 
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS 
SOUTH THRU 30N...WITH A NARROW STRIPE OF NEARLY 1 PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...STILL JUST WEST OF 130W. 
A FEW WEAK WAVES DEVELOPING IN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN 
OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO RE-SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT SHOULD 
BRING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. INTENSE LOW LEVEL FORCING 
ALONG WITH SHARP UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS TO NORCAL AFTER 18Z SAT. THE UPPER ENERGY 
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN SAT NIGHT...WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE ACTION 
PART OF SAT NIGHT...ALTHO ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP IT MOIST AND 
SHOWERY AT TIMES. FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE 0OFFSHORE WILL THEN 
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA BY SUN 
MORNING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF. THIS SECOND SHOT WILL HAVE 
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH BRISK WINDS AGAIN...BUT 
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS SAT. 

WINTER STORM WATCH HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH QPF WILL 
BE LIMITED BY FAST MOVING NATURE OF SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE SOME COLD 
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY...SOMETHING THE PREVIOUS STORM DID 
NOT HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THIS TROF WONT BE 
NEARLY AS COOL AS OUR CURRENT AIRMASS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED 
FOR SAT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ACV AND NEAR THE HEADLANDS...BUT 
SUSPECT IT WOULD BE A VERY SHORT DURATION EVENT AND WILL JUST GRAZE 
MINIMUM END OF CRITERIA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE ZONE. 

.EKA...WINTER STORM WATCH...CAZ003-004
    ...GALE WARNING...PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA 0-60NM. 

SOROKA