000 
FXUS66 KEKA 031629
AFDEKA

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
830 AM PST SUN MAR 3 2002

NEAR PERFECT WEEKEND WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS THERMAL TROF HAS 
JUMPED OFFSHORE AND BEEN NUDGED TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS 
CENTERED NEAR 130W WITH VORT ENERGY SLIDING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE NEAR  
THE COAST...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. COASTAL GRADIENTS FOR 
THE MOST PART HAVE REVERSED AND A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IS 
DEVELOPING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT REMAINS...ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORCAL 
AND POINTS NORTHWARD...BUT 12Z KOAK SOUNDING INDICATED MORE OF AN 
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN CWA. 850MB TEMPS AND 
THICKNESS VALUES ARE LOWER IN SOUTHERN CWA BUT SIMILAR TO THE NORTH. 
THEREFORE...WITH BEST OFFSHORE FLOW NORTH AND STILL NEAR UNLIMITED 
SOLAR ISOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BETTER IN 
NORTHERN ZONES AND SIMILAR OR NOTCH COOLER IN SOUTH. THIS HANDLED 
WELL IN CURRENT ZONES AND SEE NO NEED FOR UPDATE.  

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS CHANGE IN PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...WITH 
AN INITIAL SHOT OF WARM-FRONTAL RAINS BEGINNING TUE. MODELS IN 
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH CANADIAN SOMEWHAT SLOWER 
AND WEAKER. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR ALREADY SHOWS A DEVELOPING COLD 
CLOUD TOP BAND NEAR 33N/145W AND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS THIS 
DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME FORCED EASTWARD TOWARD NORCAL EARLY TUE WITH 
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. THIS FIRST PRECIP EVENT WILL BE 
WARM...WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS AND AN INITIALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE. 
HOWEVER...RAPIDLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND ENTRAINMENT OF 
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO RESPECTABLE PRECIP 
TOTALS BY MID-WEEK. THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL SINK SOUTHWARD 
DURING THU DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AND ADDING ANOTHER INGREDIENT TO THE 
MIX. WILL CONSIDER AN SPS WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR RETURN TO 
WINTERY WEATHER. 

POPS CEC 00038 ACV/EKA 00027 UKI 00005

.EKA...NONE. 

SOROKA