000 
FXUS64 KMRX 030835
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
334 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2002

STRONG COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS REGION FROM ROUGHLY LONDON, KY TO
CROSSVILLE, TN TO HUNTSVILLE, AL. FIRST INDICATION OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS A WIND TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS DONT START DOWN
IMMEDIATELY  BUT WHEN THEY DO THEY COLD FAST. TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT
ATTM IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAINLY WITH 57 AT MURPHY, NC. IN
THE REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS IN THE 20S WITH WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS. TRICKY PART OF TODAYS FORECAST IS WHAT TO GIVE
OUR FOR HIGHS, SINCE THEY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY OCCUR FROM NOW UNTIL
ABOUT 12Z WHEN THE FRONT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE VERIFICATION
SITES. TEMPS WILL FALL SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN WITH A VENGEANCE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN THEY STABILIZE. FORTUNATELY,
PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE RAIN, WITH A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
THE DRY AIR MOVES IN. THEN THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN A FEW
MORE SHOWER...SNOW...ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THROUGH TUESDAY THEN RIDGING TAKES OVER.
SIGNIFICANT THICKNESS DROPS ON MONDAY WHEN 519 DM FALLS TO THE TN-
GA LINE ACCORDING TO THE MESO ETA...513 OVER SW VA. BRRR. NEVER
THOUGHT ID BE HAPPY TO SEE 540 DM AND CALL IT WARM.

STILL A NICE WARMING TREND FOR LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE SOUTH UP AROUND 70.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY:

FCSTID = 13
CHA   48  21  33  20 /  20  40  10  10
TYS   46  20  30  18 /  30  40  10  10
TRI   47  20  27  13 /  30  40  10  10
OQT   45  20  30  18 /  30  40  10  10

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.