000 
FXUS64 KEWX 030212 CCA
AFDSAT

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2002

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.  TROPICAL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO 
STREAM ACROSS THE SKY. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS GRADUALLY MOVING 
SOUTH WITH CLUMPS OF ALTOCU CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 
06/08/PM

3PM DISCUSSION....
AIRMASS MODIFICATION DUE TO UNFORESEEN CLEARING COULD AFFECT THE 
FORECAST LOWS FOR THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS. MID CLOUD DECK SUGGESTED BY 
ETA/AVN HAS FAILED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS APPEAR 
MORE DOMINANT. AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES AND THE POSSIBLE REFORMATION OF SOME OF THE MID CLOUDS 
WHEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS OVERNIGHT SHOULD 
WARRANT A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS FROM MAV/FAN GUIDANCE 
AND PREVIOUS SHIFT CCF LOOK REASONABLE WITH TODAYS AFTERNOON 
MODIFICATION OF TEMPS OFFSETTING THE DECREASING CLOUD TRENDS FOR 
TONIGHT. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE SLOW TO 
EJECT EAST DUE TO UPSTREAM FEEDING OF ENERGY THUS PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. WITH THE ABSENCE OF 
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND MORNING LOWS TOMORROW BEING COLDER THAN 
TODAY, EXPECT TO SEE COOLER HIGHS FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS 
EJECTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS GOING LIGHT, PREVIOUS 
ASSESSMENT OF TEMPS FOR MONDAY MORNING LOOK REASONABLE WITH NEAR 
RECORD LOWS. HOWEVER, WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES TO 
ACCOUNT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

RECORDS:
SAT 3RD 21-1943  AUS 3RD 19-1943  ATT 3RD 18-1943  DRT 3RD 24-1922
    4TH 23-1965      4TH 25-1971      4TH 26-1978      4TH 27-1965

CIRRUS CLOUDS LOOK TO BE AN INFLUENCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 
TUESDAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE GULF WILL OPEN UP AND COULD PROVIDE 
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. MRF AND NOGAPS HINT AT AN ACTIVE 
SOUTHERN JET LATE IN THE WEAK WITH A STORM SYSTEM TO PROVIDE A 
CHANCE FOR CONVCTIVE RAINS SATURDAY. WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE 
FOR NOW AS THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS SUGGESTED TO 
PASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AUS 022/046/014/058 0000
DRT 028/051/024/061 0000
SAT 025/049/020/059 0000

.EWX...WIND ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA TODAY.

18/1