000 
FXUS65 KTFX 020932
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
230 AM MST SAT MAR 2 2002

.SHORT TERM...MODELS FORECAST A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE S OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY MODELS DID NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE SO WENT WITH SUNNY SKIES.
MODELS PLAYING A DIFFERENT TUNE NOW AS THEY FORECAST QPF WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH THREAT OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS/VALLEYS SO WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY AT
10 PERCENT. FOR TONIGHT THERE WILL BE NLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN CONNECTION WITH THIS. FOR SUN THROUGH MON MOIST
ANTI-CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST. WILL GO WITH A THREAT OF
SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS DRY BUT WILL
MENTION SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FOR SELECTED AREAS. BOTH
AVN AND ETA FORECAST ARCTIC FRONT TO SLIP INTO N CENTRAL MT ON
MON. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THERE FOR THAT TIME. AVN
FORECASTS 700 MB WINDS OUT OF THE NW AT 50 KNOTS SUN NIGHT OVER NW MT
TO BACK TO W AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON MON. MEANWHILE MODEL HAS DECENT
SURFACE DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WILL MENTION GUSTS TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON MON. SITUATION LOOKS
MARGINAL AT THIS POINT FOR HIGH WINDS AND SINCE ITS 5 TH PERIOD WILL
NOT GO WITH ANY HIGH WIND WATCH. BLANK

.EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK...EVEN THOUGH DIFFERENCES ARISE IN FORECAST MODELS. LATEST
MRF AND AVN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR ARRIVING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY NOW WANT TO BRING THE COLD AIR IN ON 12Z
WED...RATHER THAN 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF STILL BRINGS IT
IN ON 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING AT THE 60 HOUR ETA...THEY HAVE NORTH
WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER...SO OVERALL...I THINK THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. IF IT DOES NOT...EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY
AND MILD DAY ON TUESDAY...AS MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 40 TO
50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST. IF THE COLD FRONT DOES SLIP DOWN ON TUESDAY
MORNING...A GOOD OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THIS IS
WHAT I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST. THE COLD AIR WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
GET INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA THOUGH...SO THEY WILL BE A BIT
WARMER. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE LIKE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THEN THE NEXT SURFACE
LOW ARRIVES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. BRUSDA

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF EN 016/006 034/023 038 04211
    NJEEJ 015/025 010/015 002/023 010/023 010 11553322244
CTB EN 020/010 034/023 036 04101
    NJEEJ 010/020 003/011 910/018 008/018 008 11553322255
HLN EE 020/008 031/020 038 04111
    ESJEJ 016/035 018/025 005/024 010/024 010 11464333355
BZN BE 015/905 024/014 034 04111
    ESJEJ 009/034 010/022 001/020 006/020 006 11465333355
WEY EE 011/918 015/910 024 04111
    ESSEE 912/027 905/015 915/018 915/018 915 11467555566
DLN EE 018/002 028/017 035 04111
    ESJES 010/036 022/024 003/024 003/024 003 11465444466
HVR BN 005/912 030/018 030 04--1
    EJEEJ 012/022 001/015 910/020 006/020 006 12552222255
LWT EN 011/000 032/020 036 04111
    NJEEJ 015/027 018/020 905/015 007/015 007 11564222255=

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