000 
FXUS63 KLBF 281014
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
414 AM CST THU FEB 28 2002

...CHALLENGE TO BE SNOWFALL THU NIGHT...THEN ARCTIC AIR FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY...

MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION. STRONG SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE STATE 
TODAY. BOTH MODELS SIMILAR IN PRECIP PATTERN...BUT HAVE SLOWED THE 
SYSTEM DOWN. WINDS WILL TURN SRLY FOR A TIME....BUT WILL SHIFT TO 
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH BY THIS EVENING. H7 
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH H7 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL FAVOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWFA BY MID TO 
LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS LESSS THAN AN INCH. ONLY 30 POPS 
TIER OF CNTYS JUST TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE SRN HALF DRY. HIGHS LOWER 
30S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 20S NORTH. 

DUE TO TIMING SLOWED ABOUT 6 HOURS...SNOW LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF 
CWFA. ETA AND AVN INDICATING GOOD H5 FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT WITH 
BETTER H85 TO H7 FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING THE SERN CWFA. 

A THREE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE SNOW ACROSS EXTREME 
SOUTHEASTERN CWFA WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS INTO THE OMA...GRI...AND GLD 
CWFA. WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY WINTER WX ADVISORIES ATTM ALTHOUGH THE 
NORTHEASTERN CWFA TONIGHT AND THE EXTREME SERN CWFA LATE TONIGHT AND 
FRIDAY AM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES 
PSBLE EXTREME SOUTHEAST WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 
THE WESTERN CWFA DOESNT APPEAR TO BE IN ANY FAVORED AREAS FOR 
ACCUMULATIONS AND HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO 50 PERCENT.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AS GUIDANCE SHOWS STEADY 
TEMPS AROUND 10 ABOVE MOST AREAS. STILL SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF 
UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG CAA TO SQUEEZE OUT SCATTERED 
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWFA.

CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH AND 
NEAR ZERO FAR SOUTH.

CONTINUED VERY COLD SATURDAY. GIVEN H85 TEMPS AROUND -16C...HIGHS 
AROUND 15 LOOK ON TRACK WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

.LBF...NONE.

KAR