000 
FXUS64 KSHV 241957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
200 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2002

WARM WEATHER WILL SOON GIVE WAY TO A MAJOR COLD BLAST. UPPER LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING THE WINDOW FOR ARCTIC AIR TRANSPORT. COLD FRONT
CURENTLY IN FAR NW OK. SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN FRONTAL TIMING...BUT EVEN
THAT APPEARS TO IRON ITSELF OUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB WIND
SHIFT LAGGING BACK IN NORTHERN KS...WITH WINDSPEEDS OF 25 TO 30
KTS...NOT MUCH GREATER THAN NEAR SURFACE. THUS...WILL DISCOUNT
SLIGHTLY FASTER ETA AS FAR AS INITIAL ARRIVAL. THESE WINDS PACK A
PUNCH WITH COLD AIR FILTERING DOWN FOR ENTIRE WEEK. GREATEST SURGE
WILL REACH AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THICKNESS VALUES FALLING
BELOW THE 520 MARK ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF AREA. LOOKS LIKE A FEW
CLOUDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED IN THIS PORTION OF THE ARCTIC AIR. WILL ONLY
LOWER MIN TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORCAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. MORE PRUDENT TO GRADUALLY LOWER FORECASTS INTO TEENS AS LONG
AS ANY WINDS OR CLOUDS A CONSIDERATION. ETA PROMOTING SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE LI VALUES FOR MS VALLEY REGION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...AND SLOWING FRONT A LITTLE...WARRANTS MENTION OF
THUNDER EAST SECTIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THIS WOULD BE
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SELS OUTLOOK. FINALLY...WILL MENTION LOW
CLOUDS AREAWIDE DUE TO DOMINATING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OVERNIGHT.

SPS WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON CONCERNING THE COLD AIR
OUTBREAK.

VII

SHV 53/71/37/45  0220
MLU 50/73/40/47  0230
TXK 54/65/32/40  0210
TYR 55/70/34/41  0110
LFK 55/75/37/44  0120









VII

.SHV...NONE.