000 
FXUS61 KCTP 230618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
110 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2002

STRATUS DECK VERY TOUGH TO CRACK FRIDAY. LWR SUSQ PEEKED OUT BUT 
REST OF FA STAYED IN THE SOUP. TREMENDOUS INVERSION ABV 8H THRU THE 
DAY KEPT THE MSTR TRAPPED AND LAKES HELPED OUT BY SUPPLYING ADDL 
MSTR. THE SIGN OVER MY DESK SHUD READ /LESSONS LEARNED EVERY DAY/. 
MAJOR NEWS FOR TODAY...SUNSHINE. TONIGHT...PC OR MAINLY CLEAR AS WAA 
BEGINS IN MID LEVELS TWRD MORNING. LIGHT WINDS COULD LET TEMPS DIP 
QUICKLY BEFORE CLDS MOVE IN. SCT-BKN MID DECK ARND FOR MOST OF DAY 
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...BUT TEMPS COULD GET VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN 50S 
FOR MOST OF FA. RECORD MAXES SUN LOFTY AT 71 AT IPT & 75 AT HAR.   

GSM (00Z AVN)...12Z ECMWF...00Z GEM AND THE 00Z ETA-X (66 TO 84HRS) 
HAVE ALL MADE THE NOT-SO-UNEXPECTED MOVE TO THE WEST WITH THE FCST 
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TO IMPACT OUR REGION MON/TUE TIME FRAME. THE 
WINTER THAT COULDN/T START SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO SPUTTER. HOPE FOR 
SNOW LOVERS AND ANYONE WHO WANTS THEIR WATER-TABLE REPLENISHED STILL 
PRETTY DIM...BUT THIS FAR OUT (AND WITH THE DISPARITY IN RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE) SEEMS A BIT EARLY TO THROW IN THE OLD 
TOWEL.  THEY ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT (FOR 100 HRS OUT) ON 
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES. UPR FLOW PROGS NOT IN AS GOOD OF 
ACCORD. THEREFORE...CHC RA/SN LATE MON NITE IN THE WEST AND ALL TUES 
FOR ALL ZNS  REST OF EXTENDED LOOKING RATHER COLD... BUT NOT QUITE 
AS COLD AS PREV GUID ALLUDED TO. 8H TEMPS STILL PROGGED TO BE SUB 
-10C THRU MOST OF THOSE DAYS...AND TOUCHING -20C AT TIMES IN THE 
NORTH. THEREFORE WED MAY HOLD DECENT LKEFF SHSN. WL HOLD TEMPS AS IS 
FOR LAST 3 PDS...AND KEEP MENTIONS OF PRECIP TO FRI ONLY AT THIS 
POINT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD SNEAK IN ON THURS. 

.CTP...NONE.

DANGELO