FXUS65 KTFX 220443
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 PM MST THU FEB 21 2002

UPDATED ZONES BY 930 PM

.SHORT TERM...HERE ARE THE CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. UP
TEMPERATURES ALL PLACES EXCEPT DILLON...WHERE WE WILL LOWER. EXPAND
HIGH WIND WARNING TO JEFFERSON AND BROADWATER COUNTIES. ADD RAIN TO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR TONIGHT...BUT ABOVE 5500 FEET AND EXPAND IT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR CASCADE...JUDITH...AND FERGUS COUNTIES.

CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA IS STARTING TO INTENSIFY.
WE CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PRESSURE FALLS OF 2 TO 4 MB EVERY 3 HOURS.
MID LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED AT 75 TO 80 KTS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...SO GOING TO INCREASE WINDS TO VERY HIGH NUMBERS
IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 2AM AND 10AM IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY HAVE TO
BE EXPANDED INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN A FEW PLACES AS WINDS STILL
PROGGED OVER 60KTS...BUT WE WILL EVALUATE FURTHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN FALLING BELOW 6000 FEET IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...BUT
WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A
GRADUAL LOWERING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WE WILL EXPAND IT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS VERY IMPRESSIVE QPF PROGGED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND GOOD OVERUNNING DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT. IT WILL BE TUFF TO GET 6 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS...BUT NORTH
FACING SLOPES COULD RECEIVE AROUND 12 INCHES OF SNOW BY SATURDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BY
5 PM FRIDAY...AND INTO THE GREAT FALLS AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MIGHT BE A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

.EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
EXTENDED. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD ON MONDAY...WITH SOME WARMING TO
OCCUR TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...ECMWF STILL KEEPS
US IN A NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD MEAN WE WOULD REMAIN COULD.
HOWEVER...SINCE THESE PAST COLD SNAPS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SHORT
LIVED...WE WILL STICK WITH THE MRF AND WARM THINGS UP A BIT ON
TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. BRUSDA

UPDATED
.CCF NUMBERS
GTF NS 049/058 015/015 902 20007
    CBBEB 010/908 022/008 032/012 028/008 032 73421002211
CTB NS 046/058 010/012 908 20017
    MBBEB 008/912 018/002 028/010 025/005 030 43321002211
HLN NS 046/057 028/028 010 20014
    MBBEB 018/002 020/008 030/010 032/008 035 53331112211
BZN NS 032/050 026/034 000 20115
    JBBEB 020/903 018/005 026/007 030/004 031 73331112211
WEY MS 015/038 018/030 905 20228
    JJBJB 020/912 012/913 018/910 018/916 020 85555112311
DLN NS 025/050 028/035 007 20113
    JBBEB 024/902 023/003 030/008 028/008 032 63321111211
HVR NM 046/058 016/018 905 20014
    MBBEB 012/912 021/005 030/012 028/007 031 42321012211
LWT NS 040/055 020/020 902 20007
    JBBEB 008/912 021/004 032/010 027/006 032 73421012211=

.TFX...
...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR 
CASCADE...JUDITH...AND FERGUS COUNTIES...