000 
FXUS64 KOHX 210258
AFDBNA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
857 PM CST WED FEB 20 2002

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OH 
THROUGH E KY AND ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND THEN ACROSS AL 
TO SE TIP OF LA. 

COMPARING BNA 12Z AND 00Z SOUNDINGS...MASSIVE DRYING IN MID AND 
UPPER LEVELS OCCURRED ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY TODAY...
THE RESULT OF A GOOD W TO E DRY PUNCH AT 700 MB LEVELS. SOME 
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOWER CLOUDS TRAILED BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD BAND. APPARENTLY THERE 
WAS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF STORMS TODAY IN OUR CWA.

ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATED IN OUR AREA EARLIER 
THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT CONTINUED MOVING TO THE E. 

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CYCLONIC SWIRL OF CLOUDS AROUND 
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WI. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS THIS UPPER 
LOW TO GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVERNIGHT. 

LOWER CLOUDS WITH S EDGE FROM N MO...S IL THROUGH N KY...DO NOT SHOW 
ANY INDICATION OF MOVING THIS WAY...AS THE 850 MB ANALYSIS AT 00Z 
SHOWED W TO E FLOW EXTENDING FROM SE KS...E THROUGH S KY. 

THE RUC MODEL FORECASTS THIS W TO E FLOW TO CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. WITH 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS 
EVENING...AT LEAST AT THIS LEVEL. WILL TAKE ONE MORE LOOK TO DECIDE 
WHETHER TO RAISE MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY MAY BE FINE WHERE 
THEY ARE...AS EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND WINDS LIGHTER 
THAN WHAT IS IN CURRENT FORECASTS.

.BNA...NONE.

STEIGERWALDT