000 FXUS65 KTFX 170948 AFDTFX SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 245 AM MST SUN FEB 17 2002 .SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE NEAR NORTHERN CA. MOISTURE IS MOVING THRU THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND ALREADY WORKED ITS WAY INTO MOST OF MONTANA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THIS FLOW...ONE MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR 00Z MON. SOME MENTION OF WINDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BE NECESSARY AS 7H WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KTS NEAR BORDER. A WELL-ORGANIZED BUT WEAK WAVE CROSSES WRN MT 00Z TUE...MOVING QUICKLY...AND GENERATES RH ABOVE 80%. EXPECT MTN SNOW...SOME ISOLD POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY...AND BY 12Z TUE 850MB TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THESE SHOULD BE MODERATED DURING THE DAY BY GUSTY WEST WINDS. .EXTENDED...ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE. ONE OF THE STRONGER WAVES COMES ACROSS THE STATE LATE WED AND EARLY THU...THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LEE TROF IN ALTA AND AS TROF PASSES WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE BUT NOTHING EXTREME. A SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY LOOKS STRONGER AND SHOULD DEVELOP STRONG WINDS. WITH A A COLD FRONT INDICATED AT THE SURFACE...SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IS REQUIRED. ZELZER .CCF NUMBERS GTF EE 050/023 045/020 046 13011 EEBEE 022/041 026/048 024/046 024/036 024 11111000033 CTB BE 050/020 040/015 042 13001 NEBEE 020/039 027/046 022/040 022/035 022 11100000033 HLN EE 046/024 044/020 044 13122 EEBEE 022/043 029/050 025/044 025/038 025 11111111133 BZN EJ 035/020 030/015 032 13123 EEBEE 018/041 020/045 020/040 020/035 020 21210022233 WEY EJ 023/000 022/905 020 13146 EEBEE 907/023 903/028 000/028 000/025 000 21122222233 DLN EJ 040/020 034/018 035 13122 EEBEE 018/042 020/045 022/041 022/037 022 11210000022 HVR BE 052/020 044/015 046 13001 BEBEE 020/040 027/050 022/040 022/035 022 11100000022 LWT EE 045/023 040/020 042 13012 BEBEE 019/040 025/047 023/040 023/036 023 11100000022 .TFX...NONE.