000 FXUS64 KSHV 150912 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 300 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2002 EARLY THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO TEXAS. LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE NOTED OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE UPPER MID WEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT TRAILED SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS SE KS AND FROM NE TO SW OK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT INTO WESTERN CANADA. ALOFT TWO SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE LOOPS...ONE OVER IOWA AND THE OTHER OVER SE CO AND NEW MEXICO. THE TWO SHORT WAVES WILL PHASE TOGETHER AND FORM A LONG WAVE TROUGH TODAY AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY SATURDAY A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FOUR STATES REGION DURING THE DAY AND EXIT THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY AND PRODUCE SHOWERS. SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL END OVER THE NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AND IN THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UNTIL LATE SUNDAY WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AGAIN AND THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. LATELY I HAVE BEEN ZIGGING WHEN I SHOULD HAVE BEEN ZAGGING FOR THE 1ST PERIOD IN REFERENCE TO TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS FORMED QUICKER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY AND DID NOT ALLOW EXPECTED WARM UP. FOR THIS ROUND WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW THE NGM MOS BUT NOT AS LOW AS THE AVN MOS. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL GO MORE WITH THE LOWER OR AVN MOS NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND THE LOWER VALUES ON SUNDAY EAST AND BETWEEN NGM MOS AND AVN MOS WEST. 06 PRELIMS... SHV 063/035/064/035/067 3300 MLU 062/034/062/034/064 3500 TXK 060/033/064/033/063 3100 TYR 063/034/065/037/068 3100 LFK 067/037/064/037/070 3300 .SHV...NONE.