000 
FXUS65 KTFX 130945
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 AM MST WED FEB 13 2002

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT PATTERN HAS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE W COAST. HI-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MOVING INTO THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROF BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
AFFECT ON TEMPS FOR TODAY. ETA HAS THE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES AROUND
00Z THU...THE AVN IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR THAT TIME. PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR A WIND EVENT...AND MODEL
WINDS NOT IMPRESSIVE. WILL UPGRADE WATCH OVER THE ROCKIES TO A
WARNING AND DROP THE WATCH OVER EASTERN GLACIER. A SECOND TROF MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTH BY 06Z THU AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT COULD GENERATE
SOME SNOW. 850 WINDS SHOULD GO NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND ALLOW UPSLOPE
TO COME INTO PLAY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ALOFT SKIRTS THE CWA TO THE
EAST SO CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA NOT HIGH AND MEASURABLE
PRECIP SHOULD BE LOW.

.EXTENDED...PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVERHEAD...AND GENERALLY WARM TEMPS. SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHOULD
MAINLY BE A CAUSE OF PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAIN PATTERN THRU THE
PERIOD IS A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...KEEPING THE CWA IN A DRY
PATTERN. SOUTHWEST MT MAY BE THE EXCEPTION MON AND TUES AS THE
SOUTHERN SPLIT OF THE TROF AFFECTS THE AREA. ZELZER

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF NB 048/018 035/025 046 13052
    BENNE 025/045 028/040 022/040 020/040 020 00111222211
CTB NB 046/018 035/015 044 13031
    BENNE 024/042 020/036 018/035 018/035 018 00112222211
HLN EB 044/020 035/012 038 13022
    BEEEE 018/038 016/035 015/037 015/037 015 00122222211
BZN BB 032/015 032/002 030 13022
    BEEEE 015/030 015/030 015/030 015/030 015 00122222211
WEY BB 022/905 020/912 022 13044
    BEJEE 010/028 002/025 002/025 002/025 002 00122333311
DLN BB 034/014 030/005 032 13011
    BEJEE 012/035 015/034 015/034 015/034 015 00122322211
HVR NB 048/017 035/014 046 13051
    BEENN 021/045 019/038 015/033 015/033 015 00111111111
LWT NB 045/020 030/015 040 13073
    BEEEE 028/042 020/035 020/035 020/035 020 00111111111


.TFX...HIGH WIND WARNING ROCKY MTN FRONT WED AFTERNOON AND
       EARLY EVENING (ZONES 009/048)