000 
FXUS63 KLSX 112132
AFDSTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CST MON FEB 11 2002

SHTWV STILL APRS TO BE ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO UPR GTLKS TNGT... 
TEMPORARILY AMPLIFYING TROF OVR NATIONS MIDSECTION FOR MIDWEEK.
HWVR...MDLS ARE HVG TUF TIME PINNING DOWN THE EXTENT OF THE CD AIR 
INTRUSION BHND SHTWV...AND AMT OF LO CLDNS AS WELL.  12Z RUNS ARE 
ALL COLDER THAN THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS FROM SUN...WITH AVN AND NGM 
THE COLDEST.  GIVEN RECENT TRACK RECORD...STILL PREFER SLGTLY WRMR 
ETA THERMAL FIELDS.

IN ADDITION TO BEING COLDER...RH FIELDS FROM ALL MDLS NOW INDICATE 
MORE LO LVL CLDNS FOR AREA IN THE TUE-TUE NGT TIME FRAME...AND THESE 
ARE ALREADY DIPPING THRU NW MN/MOST OF N DKTA.  DONT REALLY FEEL 
THAT ANY ONE RH FIELD HAS A GD HNDL ON THIS...BUT 85H PTRN AND 
CONSENSUS TYPE RH FCST SUGGESTS LO CLDS DROPPING INTO N AREAS ON 
TUE...DROPPING INTO E HLF OF AREA TUE TNGT...THEN PULLING OUT ON WED 
AS SFC RDG DROPS S AND LO LVL FLOW BCMS MORE W.  CERTAINLY...SHUD BE 
MORE CLDNS THAT INDICATED BY FWC/MAV OUTPUT.  

OVRALL...MOS OUTPUT FIRST 3 PDS LKS PRETTY GD.  IF CLDS TO MV OUT ON 
WED...FWC LKS TOO COLD...SO WL TREND FCST TO MAV NUMBERS.  

STG BUT MOISTURE STARVED SYS FCST TO DIP INTO AREA THU-THU NGT TIME 
FRAME.  WITH DYNAMICS RMNG PRETTY FAR N...WL KP FCST DRY FOR NOW.

.STL...NONE
TRUETT