000 
FXUS63 KLBF 100833
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
233 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2002

...MAIN CHALLENGE TO BE DIMINISHING WINDS...THEN TEMPS...

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...WITH RIDGING IN WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NEBRASKA ROUGHLY 33 MB...THUS WINDY CONDITIONS.
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR...OPENING UPPER LOW AS IT SHIFTS EAST...WITH
RIDGING BUILDING INTO REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANDADA BY MONDAY MORNING TO PUSH TROUGH
AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH...WITH REBOUNDING HIEIGHTS BY MID
WEEK.

TODAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ATMOSPHERE TO RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES OVER ENTIRE CWA. STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA WILL
PUSH OUT OF REGION BY ZONE ISSUANCE. WINDS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS ALREADY
CALM OVER CDR...LIGHT NEAR AIA. WILL SEE THIS TREND THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH 5 TO 15 MPH WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS EAST BY MIDDAY. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST PROVIDING SOME LATE AFTERNOON
DOWNSLOPING. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 1C IN THE WEST...AND -2C IN
THE EAST...AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S EAST...TO MID
40S SOUTHWEST. WILL UNDERCUT THIS JUST A BIT...WITH SOME SNOW
NORTHEAST...AND LATE EFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE IN WEST.

TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO REGION...WITH WESTERLY FLOW DUE
TO STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS A FACTOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD SEE
DECOUPLING AND WINDS TO DROP UNDER 10 MPH. THIS TO PROVIDE FOR COLD
DRAINAGE WINDS ALONG PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WEST...TO 15 TO 20 NORTHEAST.

MONDAY...MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH H85 TEMPS...AS ETA BUILDS
IN VERY WARM POOL OF AIR...WITH AVN A GOOD 10C COOLER. WILL FAVOR THE
AVN SOLUTIONS AS 14C AT H85 SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS...DRY COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT SHOULD SEE DECENT WARMUP AHEAD AS H85 TEMPS DO WARM TO AROUND 6C
SOUTHWEST. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THICKNESS OF CIRRUS SHIELD. WILL GO
WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST...AND UNDERCUT TEMPS A BIT DUE TO LESS
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOWS
AGAIN INTO THE TEENS LIKELY.

EXTENDED...SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE TUESDAY...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -2C RANGE...HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. UPPER RIDGING TO REGAIN HOLD ON AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH MORNING LOWS INTO THE TEENS...THEN WARMING INTO THE
40S...PERHAPS NEAR 50 IN WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WITH CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST CONUS LATE IN EXTENDED...DRY FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...AND
HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY...INTO THE LOWER 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LBF...NONE.

$$

M. MUTCHLER