000 
FXUS65 KSLC 091740
AFDSLC

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MST SAT FEB 9 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...MOST REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS TROF NOW OUT OF THE AREA.  
STILL A LITTLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER AND ALONG THE WEST FLANK OF 
THE MOUNTAINS.  BUT ITS MOSTLY BURNING/MIXING OUT NICELY THIS 
MORNING.  UPDATED EARLY IN THE SHIFT TO REMOVE SOME OF THE 
CLOUDS/FLURRIES FROM THE MORNING PERIOD.  

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS TO OUR 
WEST KEEPING A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER AND 
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM RAPIDLY LATE TODAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS 
IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  
THIS SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WONT HAVE 
MUCH IMPACT HERE.  HOWEVER IT DOES HAVE A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED 
EAST OF HAWAII THAT WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN A COUPLE 
OF DAYS.  AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY THE 
MODELS INDICATE A CONNECTION REMAINS TO THE TROPICAL TAP THAT BRINGS 
A THIN BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN UT MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTH 
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. IT SHOULDNT DO MUCH BEYOND MESSING UP A MOSTLY 
CLEAR FORECAST.  

THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN 
CA COAST.  THE NEW AVN IS MOVING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A MORE 
CLOSED SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST.  THAT REINFORCES THE IDEA HERE THAT 
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS PROBABLY THE BEST IN THE LONGER RANGE GIVEN 
THE MRFS HISTORY OF NOT HANDLING CLOSED PARTIALLY CUT OFF FEATURES 
VERY WELL.  THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THERE IS STILL A 
STRONG MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE 
FEEDS INTO OUR AREA STARTING ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT.  BY ITSELF IT 
WOULDNT CAUSE TOO MUCH TROUBLE.  BUT ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK 
SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THINGS MIGHT GET A 
LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  RIGHT NOW THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE 
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WOULD 
TEND TO SHIFT NORTH TO ABOUT SLC NORTHWARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  BUT 
IT MAY BE THAT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WILL END UP A LITTLE 
UNSETTLED.  FOR NOW THE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY 
PROBABLY FINE. 

NO FURTHER UPDATES EXPECTED. 

SLC 000  CDC 000  SANDERS

.SLC...NONE.