000 
FXUS65 KTFX 090915
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 AM MST FRI FEB 8 2002

.SHORT TERM...TWO CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FIRST WILL BE
THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS MOVE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF
CNTRL MT BY 18Z...AND VAD WINDS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...THEN
CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT IS FLATTENED BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT INCREASING WINDS TO 50 KTS AT 700 MB AND TIGHTENING THE
SURFACE GRADIENT. BY 06Z MONDAY 700 MB WINDS ARE 70 KTS AND GRADIENT
TIGHTENS EVEN FURTHER. HAVE NOTICED THAT MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET
OF THIS EVENT BY 6 TO 9 HOURS SINCE LAST NIGHT. THIS IS TYPICAL OF
THE MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF WIND SCENARIO...AND WOULD EXPECT THAT
THE EVENT WILL BE DELAYED BY ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW. AS SUCH...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS YET...BUT WILL PUT
OUT AN SPS TO ADVERTISE EVENT SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
ONE. MPJ

.EXTENDED...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES ON WED. NEWEST MRF IS
DEVELOPING MORE OF A SPLIT PATTERN...AND SENDS MORE ENERGY THROUGH
CALIF AND THE SW CONUS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. SCENARIO REMAINS MOSTLY
DRY WITH PERIODIC DOWNSLOPE WINDS AFFECTING PLAINS ZONES OF CWA.
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES. MPJ

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BB 040/026 052/033 043 14100
   NBNBB 020/038 028/046 023/042 022/042 022 01111111111
CTB BB 037/023 048/033 040 14000
   NNNBB 018/035 025/043 021/039 018/039 018 01111111111
HLN BB 038/014 035/024 040 14100
   BBEBB 013/030 020/044 015/034 016/038 016 01111111111
BZN EB 034/004 028/012 038 14200
   BBEBB 010/028 012/032 012/035 015/035 015 01111111111
WEY EB 024/912 022/902 026 14200
   BBEBB 000/022 002/022 002/028 010/030 010 01111111111
DLN BB 035/010 032/015 036 14100
   BBEBB 008/028 010/030 012/034 015/035 015 01111111111
HVR BB 037/018 048/028 041 14000
   NBNBB 016/038 025/044 023/040 018/042 018 01111111111
LWT EB 031/017 044/027 039 14100
   NBNBB 018/035 025/040 020/038 018/038 018 01111111111

.TFX...NONE