000 FXUS61 KBOX 051220 AAA AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 719 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2002 ...COLD TODAY AND SEEMINGLY BENIGN FOR A WHILE... MARINE: LITTLE CHG FROM GOING FCST. SEA GOING CONDS IMPROVE LATER WED. 44011 HAS HAD PLANS FOR A REINSTALLATION ARD 2/7. WIND MAY COME DOWN THIS AFTN BUT RESURGE TNGT TONIGHT WITH CAA. NGM 3K/6K WINDS IMPRESSIVE. WCI: FEW READINGS BLO ZERO NEXT 24 HRS...MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN. MOS: FOR NOW CLOSER TO AVN GUIDANCE THRU 5 PRDS. WILL MERGE TWD NEW 00Z/5 MEX WHEN IT ARRIVE ARD 0750Z. NO FEEL FOR MEX ATTM SINCE DAY 1 OF THE STRING BUT ONCE WE LOSE THIS PRETTY COLD AIRMASS THE NEXT 24 HRS..IT CUD WARM UP TO MEX VALUES. BOSTON COLDEST MORNING OF THE YEAR TO DATE IS NOW. TDY: SUNNY WITH A CHILL WIND. BOS MAY RIVAL FOR ITS COLDEST MAX OF THE WINTER SO FAR TODAY (30 1/19). LE FLURRIES AND SCT SW- ON CC PUSH OUT TO SEA LATER THIS AM AS BL WIND DRIFTS MORE WLY. TRIMMED MOS TEMPS BY 1-2F. MWN -13 AT 11Z...SUPPORTS TEMP CUT. PATCHY CLDNS THIS AFTN. TNGT: CLEAR THEN A MO CLDY PRD. SCT FLURRIES RUFLY MHT-ORH-BDL LN W SECONDARY REINFORCING CFP. MIDWAY BTWN AVN/ETA SOLNS A CHILLING WIND CONTS TO BE A FACTOR. WED: VAR/CLDNS CHC OF FLURRIES NW FA HILLS? NOT SO SURE ABT AVN WARMING TEMPS. MIDWAY BTWN AVBL 00Z MOS GUIDANCE. SLIGHTLY INTERESTING WSW FLOW CLDS AND POSS FLURRY SITN FOR RTE 6 SWD ON CC. THU: FRINGE CLDNS...BUT MAYBE QPF FOR CAPE COD. THE ETA EXT AND UKMET RAISE A DECENT CHC OF QPF FOR CC...THIS IN KEEPING WITH YDY MRF POP ENSEMBLES. NEED ANOTHER MODEL RUN ON THIS. FRI: PC. MAYBE COASTAL FLURRIES? SAT: IC. SUN/MON PRETTY GOOD CHC PCPN (BL WARMING FOR R AT LEAST S COAST) AND HAND EDIT MRF DAY 6/7 TKNS. FOR AT LEAST A WEEK MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTIZING GULF COAST-E COAST QPF CONNECTION. FAIRLY APPARENT THAT SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THIS REGARD THURSDAY 2/7 AND ODDS MAY START FAVORING SOMETHING FURTHER N AND MORE EVENTFUL FOR OUR AREA ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. MRF IS GOING TO BE FOR NOW PEGGED AS TOO FAST AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH. UKMET AND LESSER SO NOGAPS DAY 5/6 MAY HAVE A DECENT IDEA OF MORE SWD SLOWER SOLN. FOR NOW PAINTED IT BROADBRUSH 50 POPS CHC. TIL THEN BLV ITS BIDE THE TIME. AVN/MRF: TRANSITION TO GLOBAL FCST MODEL (GFS) 4X/DAY 10 MEMBERS/CYCLE SOMETIME LATER THIS YEAR EVEN MORE HIGHLY RESOLVED THAN CURRENTLY THRU 90 HRS THEREAFTR LESS RESOLVED TO LIMIT NOISE FROM MANY SHORT WAVES AND ALLOW MORE REALISTIC ENSEMBLE SOLNS. FEW BUFKIT AVN SOUNDINGS IN 3RLY INTERVALS TO 72 HRS MAY BCM AVBL THIS SUMMER? OTRW FEW MODEL CHANGES REST OF THIS YEAR AFTR AVN/MRF UPGRADE TO GFS. 12Z/4 ECMWF AND 00Z/5 UK/MM5/SEF/AVN/ETA/NOGAPS REVIEWED FOR THIS AFD AS WELL CANADIAN ENSEMBL 10 DAY MEAN TEMP. MAYBE MORE IN 545 AM AFD. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GLW FOR OUTER WATERS MERRIMACK TO MONTAUK. SCA FOR REMAINING WATERS INCLDG...BOS HRBR AND NARRA BAY. $$ DRAG FXUS61 KBOX 051220 AAA AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 719 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2002 ...COLD TODAY AND SEEMINGLY BENIGN FOR A WHILE... MARINE: LITTLE CHG FROM GOING FCST. SEA GOING CONDS IMPROVE LATER WED. 44011 HAS HAD PLANS FOR A REINSTALLATION ARD 2/7. WIND MAY COME DOWN THIS AFTN BUT RESURGE TNGT TONIGHT WITH CAA. NGM 3K/6K WINDS IMPRESSIVE. WCI: FEW READINGS BLO ZERO NEXT 24 HRS...MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN. MOS: FOR NOW CLOSER TO AVN GUIDANCE THRU 5 PRDS. WILL MERGE TWD NEW 00Z/5 MEX WHEN IT ARRIVE ARD 0750Z. NO FEEL FOR MEX ATTM SINCE DAY 1 OF THE STRING BUT ONCE WE LOSE THIS PRETTY COLD AIRMASS THE NEXT 24 HRS..IT CUD WARM UP TO MEX VALUES. BOSTON COLDEST MORNING OF THE YEAR TO DATE IS NOW. TDY: SUNNY WITH A CHILL WIND. BOS MAY RIVAL FOR ITS COLDEST MAX OF THE WINTER SO FAR TODAY (30 1/19). LE FLURRIES AND SCT SW- ON CC PUSH OUT TO SEA LATER THIS AM AS BL WIND DRIFTS MORE WLY. TRIMMED MOS TEMPS BY 1-2F. MWN -13 AT 11Z...SUPPORTS TEMP CUT. PATCHY CLDNS THIS AFTN. TNGT: CLEAR THEN A MO CLDY PRD. SCT FLURRIES RUFLY MHT-ORH-BDL LN W SECONDARY REINFORCING CFP. MIDWAY BTWN AVN/ETA SOLNS A CHILLING WIND CONTS TO BE A FACTOR. WED: VAR/CLDNS CHC OF FLURRIES NW FA HILLS? NOT SO SURE ABT AVN WARMING TEMPS. MIDWAY BTWN AVBL 00Z MOS GUIDANCE. SLIGHTLY INTERESTING WSW FLOW CLDS AND POSS FLURRY SITN FOR RTE 6 SWD ON CC. THU: FRINGE CLDNS...BUT MAYBE QPF FOR CAPE COD. THE ETA EXT AND UKMET RAISE A DECENT CHC OF QPF FOR CC...THIS IN KEEPING WITH YDY MRF POP ENSEMBLES. NEED ANOTHER MODEL RUN ON THIS. FRI: PC. MAYBE COASTAL FLURRIES? SAT: IC. SUN/MON PRETTY GOOD CHC PCPN (BL WARMING FOR R AT LEAST S COAST) AND HAND EDIT MRF DAY 6/7 TKNS. FOR AT LEAST A WEEK MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTIZING GULF COAST-E COAST QPF CONNECTION. FAIRLY APPARENT THAT SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THIS REGARD THURSDAY 2/7 AND ODDS MAY START FAVORING SOMETHING FURTHER N AND MORE EVENTFUL FOR OUR AREA ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. MRF IS GOING TO BE FOR NOW PEGGED AS TOO FAST AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH. UKMET AND LESSER SO NOGAPS DAY 5/6 MAY HAVE A DECENT IDEA OF MORE SWD SLOWER SOLN. FOR NOW PAINTED IT BROADBRUSH 50 POPS CHC. TIL THEN BLV ITS BIDE THE TIME. AVN/MRF: TRANSITION TO GLOBAL FCST MODEL (GFS) 4X/DAY 10 MEMBERS/CYCLE SOMETIME LATER THIS YEAR EVEN MORE HIGHLY RESOLVED THAN CURRENTLY THRU 90 HRS THEREAFTR LESS RESOLVED TO LIMIT NOISE FROM MANY SHORT WAVES AND ALLOW MORE REALISTIC ENSEMBLE SOLNS. FEW BUFKIT AVN SOUNDINGS IN 3RLY INTERVALS TO 72 HRS MAY BCM AVBL THIS SUMMER? OTRW FEW MODEL CHANGES REST OF THIS YEAR AFTR AVN/MRF UPGRADE TO GFS. 12Z/4 ECMWF AND 00Z/5 UK/MM5/SEF/AVN/ETA/NOGAPS REVIEWED FOR THIS AFD AS WELL CANADIAN ENSEMBL 10 DAY MEAN TEMP. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GLW FOR OUTER WATERS MERRIMACK TO MONTAUK. SCA FOR REMAINING WATERS INCLDG...BOS HRBR AND NARRA BAY. $$ DRAG