000 
FXUS65 KTFX 241003
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 AM MST THU JAN 24 2002

.SHORT TERM...WIND IS THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE CURRENT WARNING...AND WILL UPGRADE CURRENT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT 47...THE TWO NORTHEAST ZONES. 7H WINDS
STAY ABOVE 50 KTS INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT MOST EVENTS TO END BY EARLY FRI MORNING.
HOWEVER...WILL NOTE THAT A VORT LOBE SHEARS OVER THE ROCKIES LATE FRI
AND STRONG WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE
TROF OVER SOUTHERN ALTA. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A DIRTY RIDGE. RIDGE
TOP LOCATIONS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. JET STARTS TO SAG SOUTH...120 KTS...OVER
THE CWA BY LATE FRI...A GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPS. A DIFFERENCE IN AVN
AND ETA FAMILIES CONCERNING TEMPS BY SAT. BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS
REAL HOWEVER AND DO NOT SEE WHAT WOULD PROHIBIT COLD AIR FROM MOVING
S...SAT SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE THRU AT LEAST THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL CWA...ALTHOUGH THE INTERESTING TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN
THE EXTENDED.

EXTENDED...LARGE TROF EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE NEAR CA TO A LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF MANITOBA. THIS TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW SUN AND
MON...MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND BRINGING COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTH. FMR GUIDANCE PICKS THIS UP ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS REASONABLE.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE MRF HAS DROPPED A TROF OVER SOUTHERN ALTA VS.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. THIS RUN OF THE MRF IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL DROP TEMPS ON THE EXTENDED TO
REFLECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE. ZELZER

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF NN 048/035 046/022 032 13000
    EEJJE 010/019 002/015 005/015 905/020 905 12332333311
CTB NN 046/030 042/020 025 13001
    EEJJE 005/012 002/018 000/012 908/015 908 11221222211
HLN NE 047/030 045/025 035 13111
    NEJJE 012/027 008/022 000/017 902/017 902 13322222211
BZN EC 042/024 042/022 035 13111
    CEJJE 008/025 004/020 000/018 905/020 905 13332222211
WEY EC 028/008 028/006 025 13211
    CSESE 000/012 905/010 910/010 915/008 915 35444444433
DLN EC 040/022 040/022 032 13111
    CJEJE 014/028 010/020 008/020 004/022 004 13431111111
HVR NN 048/026 044/018 022 13001
    EEJJE 905/012 905/012 905/008 908/008 908 11222222233
LWT NN 046/030 046/023 033 13000
    EEJJE 005/018 005/015 000/012 000/022 000 12332222211


.TFX...HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE ROCKY
       MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS
       HIGH WIND WARNING THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
       MONTANA