369 
FXUS63 KICT 172137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CST THU JAN 17 2002

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SNOW EVENT TODAY OVER SE KS PRODUCING 1-3 INCH 
SNOWFALLS IN BANDS.  MODELS WERE HORRIBLE WITH THIS AS THEY USUALLY 
ARE WITH MESOSCALE EVENTS...WRONGLY SUGGESTING TOO DRY AT LOW LEVELS 
FOR ANYTHING TO REACH GROUND.  SNOW IS WINDING DOWN...AND WILL LET 
ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME.  SHOULD SEE CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES 
TONIGHT WITH CURRENT TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AND WEAK RIDGING 
ALOFT MOVING IN. 

OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD OVER CA/NV.  MODELS ARE IN 
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF SYSTEM TOWARD KS THROUGH 
TOMORROW...THEN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT/SAT MORNING.  MODELS 
SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENT SYSTEM...AND EVEN 
SHOW MORE MOISTENING IN LOW-LEVELS WITH NEXT SYSTEM THAN WITH 
CURRENT ONE.  MODELS PRINT OUT SOME QPF OVER AREA...AND PRODUCE 
30-50 POPS...NEITHER OF WHICH REALLY OCCURRED WITH PRESENT SYSTEM. 

MODELS SUGGEST DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER TX/OK PANHANDLES 
LATER TONIGHT...THEN SPREADS ACROSS KS DURING DAY TOMORROW AND 
TOMORROW NIGHT.  EXPECT INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDINESS DURING THE 
DAY TOMORROW...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACH GROUND DURING THE 
AFTERNOON WEST OF I-135.  SHOULD SEE SNOW SPREAD EASTWARD OVER MUCH 
OF OUR FCST AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE 
INTENSITY IS THE BIG QUESTION.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL 
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...WHICH COULD YIELD GREATER RESPONSE FOR 
GIVEN AMOUNT OF FORCING. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND NO 
MENTION OF ACCUMULATION IN ZONES...AND LET NEXT SHIFT LOOK AT NEXT 
MODEL RUN TO DEVELOP SOME CONFIDENCE BEFORE INCREASING POPS TO 
LIKELY CATEGORY AND MENTIONING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.  AT THE 
MOMENT...MY EXPECTATION IS FOR ANOTHER 1-3 INCH EVENT...PERHAPS 
GREATER COVERAGE THAN TODAY...BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BY 
SATURDAY MORNING. 

SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH RIDGING OVER AREA.  A 
WEAKER TROF MOVES BY ON SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MOISTURE 
STARVED...SO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW.  FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER SYSTEM THAN 
MRF APPROACHING PLAINS.  ECMWF CURRENTLY BACKED UP BY LATEST AVN 
SHOWING STRONGER SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM.  FOR NOW...KEEPING REST OF 
EXTENDED FORECAST DRY UNTIL MODEL CONSISTENCY IS OBSERVED...BUT WILL 
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BY MIDWEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE IN 
ACCOUNTING FOR CLOUDINESS.  

PRELIM TEMPS/POPS SOON...ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

WOLF
FCSTID = 19
ICT   20  35  20  36 /   0  20  40   0
HUT   18  35  18  37 /   0  20  40   0
EWK   19  34  19  36 /   0  20  40   0
EQA   20  36  21  36 /   0  20  40   0
WLD   21  37  22  35 /   0  20  40   0
RSL   14  30  18  37 /   0  20  30   0
GBD   15  32  18  37 /   0  20  30   0
SLN   16  32  18  37 /   0  20  40   0
MPR   17  33  18  37 /   0  20  40   0
CFV   23  38  24  35 /   0  10  40   0
CNU   22  37  23  35 /   0  10  40   0
K88   22  37  23  35 /   0  10  40   0

.ICT...
KS...NONE.