000 
FXUS63 KICT 152128
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2002

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE EXTENT OF 
CLOUD COVER AND THE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA 
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY EARLY TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON.  MODELS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WIND 
SPEEDS REALLY NOT SLACKING OFF MUCH TONIGHT.  THEREFORE EXPECT LOW 
TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

FOR TOMORROW...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A 
FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS.  
OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE 
REGION.  HIGHS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE OR JUST A TAD ABOVE GUIDANCE 
NUMBERS.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SKIES 
PARTIALLY CLEAR...WHILE THEY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THEREFORE...WILL GO WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS 
IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  IN ADDITION...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL 
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  MOST 
OF THE LIFT WILL BE AROUND 700 MB...WHERE WINDS AT THIS LEVEL ARE 
FORCED TO RISE OVER THE COLD DOME.  

ON THURSDAY...THE AVN MODELS MOVES THIS LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL 
KANSAS...PRODUCING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE 
OTHER MODELS TAKE THE AREA OF LIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS 
OKLAHOMA.  FEEL WITH THE AVN MODEL BEING OUT NUMBERED AND PATTERN 
RECOGNITION WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.  JUST SOMETHING THAT THE NEXT 
SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMEST IN THE 
NORTH...WHERE THEY SEE SOME SUN.  GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM TO 
LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS.

SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR  ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT 
ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.  
THEREFORE WILL JUST KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES.

ANOTHER AREA OF MID LEVEL LIFT WILL STREAM ACROSS KANSAS ON 
FRIDAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE AVNX AGAIN PRODUCES SOME 
QPF...BUT WITH JUST SOME MID LEVEL LIFT AND RELATIVELY DRY LOWER 
LAYERS...WILL NOT INSERT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TAKE OVER JUST IN TIME FOR THE 
WEEKEND.  LOW TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY BE QUITE COOL WITH DRY 
CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND WILL INTO THE 40S TO 
NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...BOTH THE ECMWF 
AND MRF SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN 2C AND 6C BY 
TUESDAY.  ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD 
NOT HAVE A PROBLEM WARMING INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY.  FMR AND MEX 
GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL BECAUSE ITS LEANING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.  LOW 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL FALL OFF INTO THE 20S WITH DRY AIR IN 
PLACE.

THE BOTTOM LINE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT THE EXTREMELY DRY  AND 
RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE 
NEXT WEEK.

FCSTID = 8/FRANK
ICT   33  45  25  38 /   0   0   0  10
HUT   33  43  23  39 /   0   0   0  10
EWK   33  45  25  38 /   0   0   0  10
EQA   33  45  25  38 /   0   0   0  10
WLD   34  46  25  37 /   0   0   0  10
RSL   22  37  15  40 /   0   0   0  10
GBD   23  37  17  40 /   0   0   0  10
SLN   27  39  18  40 /   0   0   0  10
MPR   27  40  18  40 /   0   0   0  10
CFV   34  48  27  37 /   0   0   0  10
CNU   34  48  26  38 /   0   0   0  10
K88   34  48  26  38 /   0   0   0  10

.ICT...NONE.