000 
FXUS63 KIND 151921
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2002

FAST ZONAL UPPR FLOW TO CONT ACRS THE AREA DURG THIS FCST PD. NEXT 
SYS TO AFFECT THE AREA WL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS WED NIGHT. AT THE 
SFC...HI PRES RDG WL SLIDE OVR THE AREA TONIGHT. SFC SYS ASSOCIATED 
WITH NEXT SHORT WV XPCTD TO MOV INTO NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE FM 
THE SRN PLAINS BY 00Z THU. CDFNT TO PASS THRU THE CWA WED NIGHT. 
FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS/PCPN TYPE WITH THIS NEXT SYS.

IN THE NR TERM...SAT SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS OVR THE NRN AND 
ERN SECTIONS OF CWA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLDS IN THE SW. AS 850MB 
THERMAL TROF PUSHES OFF THE NE EARLY TONIGHT...THINK LO CLDS WL TEND 
TO DISSIPATE FRM SW TO NE DURG THE EVEN. ALTHOUGH XPCTG CLRG THIS 
EVEN...CLDS FM NEXT SYS WL BE MOVG INTO THE AREA LTR TONIGHT...SO WL 
GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE.

APPEARS BEST LIFT/DEEP MOISTURE WL BE LOCATED IN THE VCNTY AND TO 
THE NW OF INCOMING FNT...SO BELIEVE BEST PCPN THREAT WL MAINLY BE LT 
IN THE DAY WED AND WED NIGHT. WL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR WED AFT/NIGHT 
AS FNT MOVES THRU WITH THE HIEST POPS OVR THE FAR NW CLOSEST TO BEST 
LIFT/DEEP MOISTURE. CRITICAL LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST LIQUID PCPN 
SW OF A TERRE HAUTE-GREENSBURG LN WITH A MIX FARTHER NE. CONDS 
SHOULD IMPROVE ON THURS WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN.

LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST NGM MOS HIGHS ARE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY 
OVR THE SRN ZONES ON WED...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THURS. WL RAISE 
MOS HIGHS ON WED ABOUT 4-5 DEGS OVR THE SRN ZONES ON WED AND ABOUT 3 
DEGS ON THURS. LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.

.IND...NONE.
JAS