000 
FXUS62 KMLB 151852
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
152 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2002

CURRENT WEATHER PICTURE...THE ONLY VIABLE PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON 
THE RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC LOOP WOULD BE OVER SOUTH 
FLORIDA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP WAS DEPICTING CLEARING SKIES 
OVER LAKE...SEMINOLE AND WEST ORANGE COUNTIES AND THE CLEARING WAS 
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE PENINSULA. OFFSHORE WEATHER BUOYS 
WERE RECORDING NW WINDS 10 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. UPSTREAM 
DEW POINTS AND WINDS...FL BIG BEND AREA/NORTH FLORIDA AND ALONG GA 
BORDER...RANGED FROM MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND NW 5 TO 10 KNOTS 
RESPECTIVELY.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BUOY REPORTS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS 
SHOWED DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WAS FILTERING IN FROM THE W AND NW 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS A VORTICITY MAX SLOWLY LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS TRACKS NE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS 
TAKES PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL INTO THE 
ATLANTIC BEGINS BUILDING/RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/FLORIDA AND 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST/EXTENDED
...BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RESULTS IN 
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER 
INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH MID TO UPPER 
40S NORTH AND INTERIOR SECTIONS AND ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER ALONG 
THE COAST CAPE SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST 
...SIMILAR TO A DRAINAGE FLOW...ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL BRING 
SOME OF THE COOLER/DRIER INTERIOR AIR MASS TO THE COAST TOWARD 
SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES 
TO TRACK EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS 
REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO 
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST ALLOWING A STABLE MARINE AIRMASS TO INFLUENCE 
THE AREAS WEATHER. 

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FLATTEN 
AND AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS A FRONT MOVES 
ACROSS THE SE STATES. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY 
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY THE END OF THIS 
PERIOD TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR 80 DEGREES DUE TO CONTINUED SW 
FLOW. TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO THE EXTENDED CHANCE POPS OVER THE 
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP AND LACK OF 
DYNAMICS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

MARINE...NO MAJOR WEATHER EXPECTED AS FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE NE 
AND E AND REMAINS 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FORECAST CYCLE.

DAB UU 046/068 050/072 053 000
MCO UU 050/071 053/075 055 000
MLB UU 052/071 055/074 060 000

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GLITTO