000 
FXUS64 KLZK 150911
AFDLIT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
310 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2002

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE NO DIFFERENCES WHICH WOULD MAKE SIGNIFICANT 
IMPACT UPON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR CWFA...JUST THE USUAL 
TEMPERATURE QUIBBLES.

CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST 
WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. WRAPAROUND STRATUS WAS 
OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL...AND MOVING FARTHER AWAY.

FOR TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO 
SOUTHERLY AS RIDGE AXIS CROSSES AR. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE BELOW 400 
MB SUGGESTS ONLY CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...AND NOT ENOUGH TO MESS UP A 
MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. 
TONIGHT...CIRRUS INCREASES AND THICKENS...AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE 
GRADIENTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING COMPLETELY CALM. 
THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS 
MORNING. WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE IN A HURRY AS LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN FROM THE GULF AND POOL AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEE NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISM TO WRING OUT 
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...SO ISOLATED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT THE FRONT CROSSES THE STATE...HELPING TO WRING OUT A LITTLE 
MOISTURE EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS NIL. THEN...THE FRONT STALLS 
SOUTH OF THE STATE AS LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GETS 
STRETCHED OUT INTO ALMOST AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION. THIS 
CONFIGURATION WILL AIM SEVERAL WEAK PACIFIC IMPULSES AT OUR 
AREA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT IN A CLASSIC 
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING SITUATION. INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES WILL BE 
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY TIME MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO IN ADVANCE IN 
THE RAPID FLOW. NOGAPS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES KEY ON FRIDAY FOR THE 
FIRST ONE...WHICH IS ALREADY HANDLED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVN 
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ON THE NORTHERN 
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL 
MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLDER AIR. WILL 
NOT MENTION ANY WINTRY PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

INTO THE EXTENDED...MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GO 
AWAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW LARGE SPREADS...INDICATIVE OF LOW 
CONFIDENCE...WHICH LEAVES ME WARY OF MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST FOR 
SUNDAY. WILL JUST TWEAK IT TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...AND ADVISE DAY 
CREW...WHO WILL HAVE MORE INFORMATION TO WORK WITH.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE...

LIT UC 056/032 057/039 047 0012
HRO UC 051/035 056/030 040 0011
PBF UE 057/034 059/041 047 0012
HOT UC 057/033 059/040 049 0012

.LZK...NONE.

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