000 
FXUS61 KBGM 150839
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
340 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2002

LOCAL RADARS SHOW ECHOES ACROSS NRN ZONES AND ANOTHER BATCH THROUGH 
WRN NY. FIRST AREA OF PRECIP SATURATED LOW LVLS WITH LITTLE IF ANY 
PRECIP REPORTED AT OBSERVATION LOCATIONS. NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP 
ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY DECENT H7 SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROF. BEST UVM 
CONFINED TO NRN ZONES WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS HERE AND HI CHC 
POPS CNTRL ZONES. FAR SE WILL ONLY MENTION SPRINKLES. WITH CURRENT 
TEMPS IN MID 30S WILL JUST MENTION SHRA CNTRL ZONES AND MIX 
SHRA/SHSN NRN ZONES WITH LOCATIONS LIKE UCA AROUND 30. LATER THIS 
MORNING CAA KICKS IN WITH PRECIP TYPE CHANGING TO SHSN IN ALL 
LOCATIONS. T85 STAYS TOO WARM THROUGH DAYTIME PERIOD FOR ANY LAKE 
ENHANCEMENT AND FLW REMAINS NORTH OF REGION.

TONIGHT...JUST LOW POPS FOR EVENING SHSN CNTRL ZONES. FLW BECOMES 
WEST THIS EVENING THEN LATER THIS EVENING ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS 
INDICATE 290/300 FLW. T85 DROPS TO -11/12C WITH CONDITIONAL 
INSTABILITY. LOW LVL INSTABILITY NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WITHOUT 
ADDITIONAL UPR LVL SUPPORT ACCUM SHOULD REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. 

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPR LVL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A 
PS DAY ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH MID/UPPR LVL MST MOVING INTO WRN ZONES 
LATE. ACROSS NRN ZONES INV CONTINUES TO LOWER WITH ANY REMAINING LE 
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES REGION WITH MORE SIGN WAA 
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAN THIS CURRENT SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE 
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN ALL AREAS.

FOLLOWED NGM MOS GUID FAIRLY CLOSE EXCEPT WED NIGHT WHERE MAV SEEMS 
MORE REASONABLE DUE TO CLD COVER.

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED

.BGM...NONE.

RRM