196 
FXUS61 KPBZ 281953 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION - CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EST WED NOV 28 2001

MRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM 
HAVING THE GREATER INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH 
NEXT WEEK. 

ETA AND AVN ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING BLOBS OF RAIN ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE HEAD OF THE OHIO REGION TONIGHT. AREAS OF 
FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE SATURATED AIR AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THURSDAY 
MORNING.  THIS INITIAL RAIN COULD MISS THE SOUTHERN THIRD. THE 
MODELS SHOW THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM 
FRONT...TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTEND INTO EARLY THURSDAY 
NIGHT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS MAY PRECLUDE MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT. 

THE AVN IS ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ETA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE CAN BE 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 
ETA TIMING AND MENTIONED OCCASIONAL RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN AND 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING. 

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUBFREEZING 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE 
FRONT THIS WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PREVENT 
ANY LAKE EFFECT AND MITIGATE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DID MENTION SCATTERED 
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING PER MRF SHOWING A SECONDARY COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THAT DRY WESTSOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY. 

TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON MOS ENSEMBLES. BIGGEST VARIANCE WILL 
BE FRIDAY HIGHS PER TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. ...GIORDANO


.PBZ...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.