040 
FXUS62 KMHX 170748
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 AM EST SAT NOV 17 2001

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDING IN 
TODAY BEHIND SUBTLE BACK DOOR FRONT. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO FCST WILL BE 
HIGHS TODAY WHERE MOS AND TRAJECTORY FORECASTS INDICATING HIGHS 
MAINLY IN LOW-MID 70S VERSUS UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. LATEST AVN/ETA ALSO 
INDICATES SOME ONSHORE FLOW CLOUDS AND LOW CHC POPS SUN NIGHT INTO 
MON BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS FOR LATER RUNS GIVEN 
CURRENT DRY REGIME. 

MARINE: EXPECTING UNFRIENDLY OCEAN WATERS TODAY AS DECAYING SWELL 
CLASHES WITH STIFFENING N AND NE WIND. SOURCE REGION OF SWELL WHICH 
HAS RESIDED BTWN 30-36N AND E OF THE 41001 BUOY BREAKS DOWN TODAY AS 
SFC LOW CUTS THROUGH THIS E-SE FETCH. SFC LOW OFF FLORIDA WILL 
PROVIDE NO SWELL CONTRIBUTION TO MHX WATERS AND BECOMES ELONGATED 
ALONG 30N WELL OFFSHORE BY TNGT. 

WAVE SPECTRA FROM 41001 AND 41002 BUOYS INDICATES SWELL IS BCMG 
DISMANTLED AS INCREASING SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES CONTINUE TO TEAR 
INTO THE ROLLERS. THIS BEING THE WEEKEND STORY AS A FRESH NE FLOW 
OVERSPREADS THE MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS.   

HEADLINES WILL BE SCA COASTAL WATERS FOR BOTH WIND AND SEA THREAT.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A MORE VIGOROUS LOOK AT WHAT HEADLINES TO ISSUE 
FOR THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND...BUT AT A MINIMUM SCEC GIVEN 
FROPA SURGE TODAY.

.MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

JBM/COLBY