551 
FXUS65 KBOI 162043
AFDBOI

SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO
145 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2001

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS STILL ALONG THE OREGON COAST EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALREADY REACHED TWIN 
FALLS.  RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS CROSSED THE CASCADES AND REACHED 
CENTRAL OREGON AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.  A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FOCUS MUCH OF THE ENERGY NORTH OF 
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR 
A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP MOST WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT 
AREA SAT THEN EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE 50-60 PCT 
POPS MOST AREAS WITH THIS SYSTEM.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 
9000 FEET AND DROP TO ABOUT 5000 FEET BY EARLY SAT MORNING BEHIND 
FRONT.  EXPECT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW BELOW 6000 FEET THOUGH AND 
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM. BACKWASH OF 
PARENT UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST IDAHO ZONES INTO EARLY 
SUNDAY THEN CLEARING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL 
STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY.  

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (TUE-FRI)...MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN LINE 
WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE CHANGED CONSIDERABLY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 
SOLUTIONS.  THE LATEST EUROPEAN NOW HAS HEIGHTS OF 240 METERS LOWER 
THAN THE PREVIOUS WHILE THE NEW MRF IS 120 METERS HIGHER THAN THE 
PREVIOUS OVER BOISE.  THIS DOES NOT MAKE FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE 
FORECAST BUT FEEL THEIR IS ENOUGH SUPPORT AT THIS TIME TO MENTION A 
CHANCE OF PRECIP WED-SAT NEXT WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 
NORMAL OR JUST BELOW BY THANKSGIVING.

.BOI...NONE.

EGGER