878 
FXUS61 KCAR 162038
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2001

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BRINGING
COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE ACROSS ON SATURDAY AND
THEN SLIP OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE MILDER AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH PUSHES WARMER AIR
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. BY LATE MONDAY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
WIND AND RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS FOR MID WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING
IS MOVING EAST AND AWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH COLDER AND DRYER
AIR. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE THE HIGH
QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY PULLS A FRONT
TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ON MONDAY A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE LAKES
REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN LAKES. THE LOW WILL
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OR UP THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WIND AND A SHOWERY RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH AND AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOME MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL
IN BEHIND THE STORM. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE WRAPING AROUND THE TOP
OF THE STORM...AND IN FROM THE WEST AS THE STORM LIFT OUT. THIS BRINGS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...ANY
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY OR SQUALLY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS HIGH IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

FOLLOWING THE STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE
RATHER DIVERSE ABOUT THE SOLLUTIONS OUT THIS FAR. THE AVN SUGGESTS THE
INITIAL EARLY WEEK STORM DOMINATES THE TROUGHS ENERGY...AND THEREFORE THE
SECOND STORM WOULD BE LEFT WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN
SOME AREAS. IF THE CANADIAN GEM IS RIGHT...A LOT OF ENERGY IS LEFT FOR
THE SECONDARY WAVE...SO MUCH SO THAT ANY MIDWEEK STORM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING RAIN AGAIN. AN INTERMEDIATE SOLLUTION MAY ALLOW
A FRONT TO SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A WAVE TO APPROACH AROUND MID
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS. KEPT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH
ONLY CLOUDS MENTIONED.

.COASTAL WATERS...

.CAR...SCA COASTAL WATERS

MCB