643 
FXUS64 KLUB 160924
AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

FILLING UPPER LOW NEAR ROSWELL NEW MEXICO WILL WOBBLE DURING THE DAY 
AND BE NEAR CLOVIS BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS THE BEST REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. 06Z ETA SHOWS THIS WELL
FOR 09Z ON THE 295-305K LAYER WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FROM 
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE NEUTRAL OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN IS ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THIS WILL MAINLY BE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF DENSE FOG WERE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AT 09Z. WITH
WET GROUND AND MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT THE DENSE FOG
TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL ISSUE
AN ADVISORY SHORTLY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AND 06Z ETA 
SHOWS MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RETURNING THIS EVENING. WILL 
RAISE THE POPS BACK TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER 
LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS 
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL KEEP LOWER 
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WEST 
TO 40 PERCENT ROLLING PLAINS. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR 
SUNDAY AS REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE.

 HOWEVER...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES OUT OF 
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY MORNING DEEPENING THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS ONE CUT OFF 
LOW EXITS THE STAGE ANOTHER ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER 
LOW NEAR SALT LAKE CITY MONDAY MORNING WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO 
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE BY TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS 
WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO THINK OF WINTRY PRECIP ATTM BUT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR TO SEE IF MODELS LATCH ON THE THE 
STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE COLD AIRMASS COMING OUT OF CANADA.
NOT SOMETHING THAT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GOOD AT. 

FRIONA           52/44/57/40/61     4521-
TULIA            54/46/58/42/63     45321
CHILDRESS        60/52/61/48/64     46431
BROWNFIELD       53/46/62/43/66     3521-
LUBBOCK          55/48/61/45/65     35321
ASPERMONT        62/54/63/50/66     36431
     
.LUB...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z ZONES 21>24-27>30-33>36-39>41.

TINSLEY