016 
FXUS63 KICT 160727
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
128 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2001

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WHAT TO DO WITH POPS SAT 
AND SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OVER NEW MEX...WITH ASSOCIATED 
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER OK. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES 
ITS SLOW TRACK WESTWARD AND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NW ARKANSAS. 

TODAYS TEMP FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHEN THE CLOUDS 
MOVE-IN. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD THUS WILL THE 
CLOUD SHIELD. THE WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE CLOUDS FIRST SO WILL GO 
UPPER 60S THERE...WITH NEAR 70 OVER SE AREAS. WITH MORE CLOUD 
COVER...WOULD EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

SAT HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS 1000-500 THICKNESS DROP AS WELL 
AS 850 TEMPS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER 
AREA...AS WELL AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. 

BOTH AVN AND FWC GUIDANCE INCREASE POPS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. Q-VEC, 
OMEGA AND ISENTROPIC REALLY DO NOT APPEAR TO YIELD ANY REAL 
SIGNIFICANT LIFT. THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY 
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND EVEN THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG 
DEAL...AS THE BEST LIFT REMAINS NORTHEAST OF AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE 
THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY. LOWS SAT WILL VARY QUITE A 
BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CWA...AS COLDER AIR STAYS CONFINED TO 
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF KS. CALMER WINDS WITH PLENTY OF RADIATION WILL 
RESULT IN OR AT SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. 
RIGHT NOW ECMWF 850 TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MRF...SO WILL 
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE LATEST MRF RUN COMES IN.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE WEDNESDAY. THE 
EARLIER MRF IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE 
PUSHES THE SURFACE HIGH MORE QUICKLY EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY 
SLIGHTLY MOVES THE SFC HIGH SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF 
DISCREPANCY...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT FOR THANKSGIVING AS 
MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF AREA.

RBL


.ICT...NONE.