731 
FXUS63 KDMX 152124
AFDDSM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
322 PM CST THU NOV 15 2001

PRIMARY FCST CONCERNS WL BE FOG TNGT AND TEMPS INTO WEEKEND.  MDLS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS UPR LVL RDG SHOULD BUILD INTO CNTRL CONUS FOR 
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NIL UVM OR FORCING.  BIG PROBLEM TNGT WL BE FOG 
DVLPMT.  VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY PLACES RPDLY DMSHG AND NARROW BAND OF 
ST FM KMCW THRU KALO AND SEWD.  XPC THIS AREA AND SURROUNDING 
LOCATIONS TO BE FAVORED AND INITIAL AREA FOR FOG DVLPMT TNGT WITH 
LOW TEMP/DWPNT SPREADS.  19Z SFC ANLYS INDCS WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH 
DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 50S FA WIDE.  DO NOT XPC THIS LOW LVL MSTR TO 
GO ANYWHERE TNGT WITH LOW LVL COL MOVG ACRS NRN PTNS.  WL ISSUE 
DENSE FOG ADVY INVOF THIS AREA OVNGT INTO EARLY FRI.  COORDINATION 
W/ARX AND DVN.

TEMPS ONLY OTHER CONCERN THRU SAT.  LOW CLDS/FOG MAY HOLD BACK TEMPS 
EARLY TMRW BUT XPC PLENTY OF SUN BY AFTN LIKE TDA.  SAT WL LIKELY BE 
ANOTHER WRM DAY NR RECORD HIGHS WITH INCRG SWLY WNDS SO WL STAY AOA 
WRMR OF TWO GUID SETS.  THIS IS SPCLLY TRUE TNGT AS MDLS HAVING 
DIFFICULT TIME RECOGNIZING LOW LVL MSTR.

MED RANGE MDLS..XCP FOR NOGAPS WHICH SEEMS TOO AMPLIFIED...STILL IN 
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LG WV PTN EJECTING SHRT WV OUT OF ALEUTIAN LOW 
CARVING LG WV TROF INTO GTLKS LATE SUN.  HWVR THERE CONTS TO BE 
DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHRT WVS.  MRF H5 
ENSEMBLES REFLECT SIMILAR PROBLEMS SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN 
EXTENDED FCST.  MRF HAS SHOWN BETTER CONTINUITY PAST FEW RUNS SO SEE 
NO REASON NOT TO FOLLOW FOR A START.  WL KEEP CURRENT FCST GOING 
WITH QG FORCING AND QPF SUPPORTING PCPN CHCS LATE SAT/SUN AND AGN 
TUE NGT.  UVM PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY NRN STREAM BUT SWRN CUTOFF LOW MAY 
COME INTO PLAY SUN AS WELL.  PARTIAL THICKNESS STILL POINT TWRD RAIN 
SAT NGT INTO SUN BUT LOOKS A BIT WRMR TUE NGT.  WL CHG TO MEASURABLE 
BUT LGT EVENT...SNW NE AND RAIN SW.  WRM ADVCTN INCRS THU AS LOW 
DVLPS ACRS CNTRL PLAINS...BUT H85/H5 RH NOT QUITE SATURATED YET AND 
SYS STILL A LG WAYS OFF SO WL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  TEMP GUID NOT TOO 
DIFFERENT BUT RECENT PERFORMANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK COOL DOWN 
FAVORS LOWERD END OF MINS AND HIGH END FOR MAXES.

.DSM...DENSE FOG ADVY OVNGT INTO EARLY FRI NERN FA
       IAZ005>007-016-017-024>028-036>039-049-050

SMALL