863 
FXUS62 KILM 030740
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 AM EST SAT NOV 3 2001

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. 
THERE IS SOME OMEGA AT H8...BUT MODELS INDICATING VERY WEAK MOISTURE 
FLUX CONVERGENCE. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A TENTH OF AN INCH 
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS PERSISTENT E TO SE FLOW MAY BRING IN 
SOME SHOWERS. I WILL KEEP THE 20 POP FOR TONIGHT.

AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT NOT AS CHILLY AS LAST COUPLE. STILL... 
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THATS A 10 
TO 15 DEG DROP FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. ALSO WITH GRADIENT 
TIGHTENING AS MICHELLE MOVES BY WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH BUILDS IN 
FROM THE WEST...BUMPED UP MINS A CATEGORY OR SO.

CWF: EASTERLY FETCH CONTINUES TO BRING 8 TO 9 SEC SWELLS INTO THE 
COASTAL WATERS. LATEST BUOYS SHOW SEA HEIGHTS RANGE ABOUT 5 FT. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL 
LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GRADIENT 
TIGHTENING SIGNIFICANTLY MON AND TUE. LIKELY TO SEE SOME LARGE SEA 
HEIGHTS AS HURRICANE MICHELLE MOVES FROM THE BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

FCSTID = 27
ILM   80  54  70  45 /  10  20   0   0
LBT   82  51  68  41 /   0  20   0   0
FLO   82  52  69  42 /   0  20   0   0
MYR   79  55  70  46 /  10  20   0   0

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

DIGIORGI