194 
FXUS63 KARX 120812
AFDLSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
310 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE CENTERED ON RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WESTERN EDGE OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MAIN RAIN AREA
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

00Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT VERSUS EARLIER RUNS. ETA NOW
TRENDING TOWARD THE 12Z AVN SOLUTION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
48 TO 60 HOUR TIME FRAME. ETA REMAINS SLOWER IN LIFTING THE UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS
MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL SIDE WITH THE AVN.

IN THE NEAR TERM...CURRENT SYSTEM IN INDIANA TO CONTINUE TO PULL
NORTHEAST. MAIN AFFECT ON OUR AREA WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS
SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE HEADING NORTH ON SATURDAY...WHILE LARGE TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.

FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT ZONES HAVE HIGHEST POPS THESE AREAS
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. SOME CONCERN THOUGH...AS AVN QPF
SHUNTS MOST OF IT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ETA PAINS
A LITTLE MORE FARTHER WEST. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT POPS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONCE SYSTEM PASSES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO BY
AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...AND
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES...BUT
WILL NOT MENTION QUITE YET.

HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.LSE...NONE.

RABERDING