436 
FXUS65 KTFX 270043 CCA
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR CCF 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
320 PM MDT THU SEP 26 2001

DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING VERY SLOWLY
EAST WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING...A CHINOOK ARCH IS DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES THRU SATURDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SW MT BECOMES SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE...AND NEARLY NEUTRAL TO UNSTABLE ACROSS ALL ZONES DURING THE
EVENING. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND ONLY SEE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF CONVECTION SOUTH AND CENTRAL. TO THE NORTH...WILL BE CLOSER TO
DYNAMICS AND WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS ALOFT COOL FROM -11 TO
-16 BY 00Z SAT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES WESTERN MT
BY 12 SAT...SHOULD HAVE SIG MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND ALONG
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK INTO SAT. ZELZER

EXTENDED...MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
OVER MONTANA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE
AMPLIFICATION. DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 25/12Z
ECMWF DIGS A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST (MORE IN LINE WITH
25/00Z MRF) AND KEEPS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER MONTANA. THE
26/00Z MRF KEEPS A BROADER RIDGE WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW OVER
MONTANA WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE FOR
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
EXTENDED WITH ONLY VARYING CLOUDINESS WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH THE MOST AMPLIFIED RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD...THEN
ONLY SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
TO DEVELOP. THIS TYPE OF WIND PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.  COULSTON

CCF NUMBERS
GTF BE 045/077 046/072 044 13001
    EUUBB 072/046 078/044 076/043 073/042 071 11100001111
CTB BE 044/070 042/066 040 13002
    EUUBB 068/044 075/042 073/041 070/039 067 11100001111
HLN BE 045/085 045/075 042 13001
    EUUBB 073/045 080/045 078/043 076/042 075 11100000000
BZN BB 045/083 043/075 041 13011
    BUUBB 074/045 080/045 078/043 076/042 075 11100000000
WEY BB 035/075 030/070 028 13011
    BUUBB 070/035 075/035 073/032 069/032 067 11100000000
DLN BB 045/079 045/077 044 13011
    EUUBB 074/045 080/045 078/043 076/042 075 11100000000
HVR BE 048/082 046/078 044 13002
    EUUBB 078/046 081/045 079/043 075/042 073 21100001111
LWT BB 043/078 046/075 044 13001
    EUUBB 072/046 078/044 076/043 073/042 071 11100001111